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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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UK General Election 2019 #2 – My forecast is the most accurate & beats the Exit Poll!

December 16, 2019 By Nigel

At 2200 on Thursday 12th December 2019, the BBC/ITV/Sky Exit Poll was revealed to the nation and pointed to a large majority for the Conservatives.  Unlike 2017, I was able to turn to my wife and say “it looks like I will be right this time!”  By the end of the night, Gavin Freeguard from the Institute of Government was tweeting that not only was I the most accurate election forecaster of 2019, I was more accurate than the Exit Poll.

[Read more…] about UK General Election 2019 #2 – My forecast is the most accurate & beats the Exit Poll!

Filed Under: Elections, Featured blog, Forecasting Tagged With: BBC, Brexit, Election forecasting, Exit poll, Forecasting model, GE2019, general election 2019, ITV, John Curtice, Politics, Seat forecast, Sky

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