• Blog home
  • Elections
  • Polling
  • Sport
  • Weather
  • Forecasting
  • Diversity
  • Stats Training
  • Misc
  • Archive
  • Twitter
  • Back to Marriott Statistical Consulting

Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

You are here: Home / Archives for GE2019

UK General Elections #5 – How accurate are voting intention polls? – updated with GE19

December 29, 2019 By Nigel

After 3 general elections with severe polling errors, the UK opinion pollsters redeemed themselves in the 2019 UK General Election with their most accurate performance since 1955.  I base this statement on data provided by Mark Pack who has systematically recorded every opinion poll published since 1945.  The challenge now for the industry is to maintain this level of performance for the next election which may be easier said than done given that 5 out of the last 8 elections have experienced a major polling error.

[Read more…] about UK General Elections #5 – How accurate are voting intention polls? – updated with GE19

Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting, Polling Tagged With: Election forecasting, elections, GE2019, Opinion Polls

UK General Election 2019 #2 – My forecast is the most accurate & beats the Exit Poll!

December 16, 2019 By Nigel

At 2200 on Thursday 12th December 2019, the BBC/ITV/Sky Exit Poll was revealed to the nation and pointed to a large majority for the Conservatives.  Unlike 2017, I was able to turn to my wife and say “it looks like I will be right this time!”  By the end of the night, Gavin Freeguard from the Institute of Government was tweeting that not only was I the most accurate election forecaster of 2019, I was more accurate than the Exit Poll.

[Read more…] about UK General Election 2019 #2 – My forecast is the most accurate & beats the Exit Poll!

Filed Under: Elections, Featured blog, Forecasting Tagged With: BBC, Brexit, Election forecasting, Exit poll, Forecasting model, GE2019, general election 2019, ITV, John Curtice, Politics, Seat forecast, Sky

UK General Election 2019 #1 – My Official Forecast

December 12, 2019 By Nigel

My forecast for the 2019 UK General Election this Thursday is that the Conservatives will win a majority of 72 seats.  The margin of error in this forecast is very wide though due to the fact that 5 of of the last 7 general elections have seen a major polling error.  If there is a repeat of the GE2017 underestimate of Labour, then there will be another hung Parliament.

[Read more…] about UK General Election 2019 #1 – My Official Forecast

Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting Tagged With: Brexit, Election forecasting, Forecasting model, GE2019, general election 2019, Politics, Seat forecast

UK General Election 2019 Voting Intention – Final Polls

December 12, 2019 By Nigel

Today, the UK votes in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years.  After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt.  As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives recovered their 2017 standing but Labour are still behind their 2017 performance.

[Read more…] about UK General Election 2019 Voting Intention – Final Polls

Filed Under: Elections, Polling Tagged With: GE19, GE2019, general election 2019, Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls, Voting Intention

UK Opinion Poll Tracker #16 – December 2019

December 5, 2019 By Nigel

Next Thursday, the UK will vote in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years.  After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt.  As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives have more or less recovered their 2017 standing but Labour are still behind their 2017 performance.

[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #16 – December 2019

Filed Under: Polling Tagged With: GE19, GE2019, general election 2019, Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls, Voting Intention

UK Opinion Poll Tracker #15 – November 2019

November 29, 2019 By Nigel

In two weeks time, the UK will vote in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years.  After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt.  As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives have more or less recovered their 2017 standing but Labour is still a long way from repeating their 2017 performance.

[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #15 – November 2019

Filed Under: Polling Tagged With: GE19, GE2019, general election 2019, Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls, Voting Intention

Search this site

More blogs

Pay Gap Trends #5 – Has pay gap reporting narrowed the gender pay gap?

Disinterested employers were nearly 20% less likely than engaged employers to have narrowed their UK … [Read More...] about Pay Gap Trends #5 – Has pay gap reporting narrowed the gender pay gap?

UK Weather Tracker #63 – April 2022

My mother got me excited today when she said she had read it was the driest April since 1842 but she … [Read More...] about UK Weather Tracker #63 – April 2022

Pay Gap Data #5 – Where can I find gender pay gap data for 2021?

This post was updated on 1st May 2022 with the latest data The government requires all … [Read More...] about Pay Gap Data #5 – Where can I find gender pay gap data for 2021?

UK Weather Tracker #62 – March 2022

It was a warm and sunny March this year in the UK.  In fact it was the 2nd sunniest March on record. … [Read More...] about UK Weather Tracker #62 – March 2022

6 Nations History #2 – The men’s story so far in 2022

The 2022 Six Nations (Men's) ended with France beating England to win their 1st Grand Slam and 6 … [Read More...] about 6 Nations History #2 – The men’s story so far in 2022

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Join our newsletter mailing list

Receive latest news, articles and offers

We are GDPR compliant. Read our privacy and Cookie policy for more info.

Check your inbox or spam folder to confirm your subscription.

Copyright © 2022 ·Registered in England, Company No. 5577275, VAT No. 883304029. Registered Office – 65 Bristol Road, Keynsham, Bristol, BS31 1EG