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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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UK General Election 2019 Voting Intention – Final Polls

December 12, 2019 By Nigel

Today, the UK votes in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years.  After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt.  As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives recovered their 2017 standing but Labour are still behind their 2017 performance.

[Read more…] about UK General Election 2019 Voting Intention – Final Polls

Filed Under: Elections, Polling Tagged With: GE19, GE2019, general election 2019, Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls, Voting Intention

UK Opinion Poll Tracker #16 – December 2019

December 5, 2019 By Nigel

Next Thursday, the UK will vote in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years.  After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt.  As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives have more or less recovered their 2017 standing but Labour are still behind their 2017 performance.

[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #16 – December 2019

Filed Under: Polling Tagged With: GE19, GE2019, general election 2019, Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls, Voting Intention

UK Opinion Poll Tracker #15 – November 2019

November 29, 2019 By Nigel

In two weeks time, the UK will vote in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years.  After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt.  As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives have more or less recovered their 2017 standing but Labour is still a long way from repeating their 2017 performance.

[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #15 – November 2019

Filed Under: Polling Tagged With: GE19, GE2019, general election 2019, Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls, Voting Intention

UK Opinion Poll Tracker #14 – February 2019

March 4, 2019 By Nigel

After 12 months of essentially static polls despite the news being dominated by Brexit, Labour has experienced a significant worsening of their position and the Conservatives have opened up a lead over Labour that would give them a majority in parliament.  Words of caution are being uttered about the extent of the Tory lead since one pollster is notably out of step with all other pollsters.

[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #14 – February 2019

Filed Under: Polling Tagged With: Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls

UK Opinion Poll Tracker #13 – December 2018

January 5, 2019 By Nigel

The Conservatives have lost their lead over Labour but despite the parliamentary turmoil over Brexit in December, the polls do not show much movement in the grand scheme of things.

[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #13 – December 2018

Filed Under: Polling Tagged With: Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls

UK Opinion Poll Tracker #12 – October 2018

November 4, 2018 By Nigel

Here is a long overdue update of my UK opinion poll tracker and in this post, I going to take a closer look at the key trends over the last 12 months.

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Filed Under: Polling Tagged With: General Election 2017, Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls

UK Opinion Poll Tracker #11 – March 2018

April 6, 2018 By Nigel

For my latest Opinion Poll Tracker, I will explore 4 points currently being debated by political pundits.

  1. Have the Conservatives taken the lead in the polls?
  2. How much weight should we give to Survation polls who were the most accurate in 2017 and are the outlier poll today?
  3. Was there a “Youthquake” in the 2017 general election?
  4. What would the effect be of allowing 16 & 17 year olds to vote in general elections?

[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #11 – March 2018

Filed Under: Polling Tagged With: General Election 2017, Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls

UK Opinion Poll Tracker #10 – January 2018

February 2, 2018 By Nigel

Labour continues to hold a small lead over the Conservatives at the start of 2018.   Little has changed from the end of 2017.

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Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls

UK Opinion Poll Tracker #9 – December 2017

January 13, 2018 By Nigel

Labour continues to hold a small lead over the Conservatives as the nation entered the Christmas holidays.  There is evidence of some voter movement towards UKIP which indicates that their true national level is around 4% or 5% and their General Election performance was distorted by so many of their candidates standing down.

[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #9 – December 2017

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls

UK Opinion Poll Tracker #8 – November 2017

December 3, 2017 By Nigel

Labour’s 2 point lead over the Conservatives disappeared during November and they now hold a very slight lead.  There is evidence of some voter movement towards UKIP which indicates that their true national level is around 4% or 5% and their General Election performance was distorted by so many of their candidates standing down.

[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #8 – November 2017

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls

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