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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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UK Weather Tracker #45 – October 2020

November 4, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

The weather in the UK in October 2020 was abnormally wet and dull.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #45 – October 2020

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Index, Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

UK Weather Tracker #44 – September 2020

October 9, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

The weather in the UK in September 2020 was unremarkable.  Can’t say more than that!
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #44 – September 2020

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Index, Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

UK Weather Trends #14 – Summer 2020

September 8, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

Last year, I predicted that the 2020 summer would not be good and I was right.  On average it was duller, wetter and warmer than normal.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #14 – Summer 2020

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Tracker #43 – August 2020

September 4, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

An unremarkable August, apart from a brief hot & stormy period, means all 3 months of the 2020 UK meteorological summer have been unremarkable.  I suppose we can’t complain given the remarkable spring we had!
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #43 – August 2020

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Index, Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

UK Weather Tracker #42 – July 2020

August 3, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

I’m obviously a biased sample point as I thought July had been a pleasant month weather wise but the latest data from the UK Met Office shows it was unremarkable on all fronts.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #42 – July 2020

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Index, Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

UK Weather Tracker #41 – June 2020

July 2, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

After the two sunniest months on record, the UK weather returned was reassuringly normal and boring in June 2020. [Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #41 – June 2020

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Index, Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

COVID19 Deaths #2G – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 19th June

June 21, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 23rd June.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2G – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 19th June

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

COVID19 Deaths #2F – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 12th June

June 15, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 16th June.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2F – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 12th June

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

Pay Gap Trends #3 – Did the UK gender pay gap narrow in 2019?

June 14, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

On 24th March 2020, the UK government suspended enforcement of the gender pay gap reporting deadline of 5th April.  As of today, just over 50% of employers have reported their 2019 gender pay gap figures.  Despite this shortfall, I have used statistical imputation methods to calculate that the median gender pay gap narrowed in 2019 from 9.6 pence in the pound to 9.0-9.2 pence in the pound.

[Read more…] about Pay Gap Trends #3 – Did the UK gender pay gap narrow in 2019?

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: data quality, Gender Pay Gap, imputation, missing data, trend analysis, year on year

COVID19 Deaths #2E – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 5th June

June 6, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 9th June.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2E – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 5th June

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

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