Parliament

UK General Election 2024 #1 – Going beyond the swing

February 18, 2024 By Nigel Marriott

Labour is on course for a crushing landslide later this year… or are they? Many parallels with 1997 are being drawn at the moment but it’s too early to be making detailed forecasts. Instead, I want to lay the foundations for my election forecast later this year by looking at what 100 years of UK electoral history is telling me. I tell this story by assigning probabilities to 10 specific outcomes of interest and finish by explaining why 2024 is more likely to be a repeat of 2001 than 1997.

I remind you I was deemed the most accurate forecaster of the 2019 general election. This article is the first in what I hope will be a series of articles which lead me to hold on to that accolade!

Pay Gaps #30 – Why Disability Confident is the Template for Mandatory Ethnicity Pay Gap Reporting

February 3, 2024 By Nigel Marriott

In July 2023, the UK government’s finally published its response to its 2018 consultation on whether #ethnicity #paygap #reporting should be made mandatory for UK employers. A number of paragraphs from this response were quoted in an article published at the time in The Voice newspaper.

I want to go through two of those paragraphs because they highlight what is wrong with the current debate. I think the debate can be reset in a more productive direction if campaigners and the government were to focus on Action 71 of the Inclusive Britain action plan instead of Action 16. In short, those who wish to implement mandatory ethnicity pay gap reporting should use existing Disability Confident reporting scheme as a template to build on and not copy and paste Gender Pay Gap Reporting.

Voice Referendum #2 – My Forecast Reviewed

November 5, 2023 By Nigel Marriott

Australians rejected the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on 14^th October 2023. NO won the national vote by 20.1 percentage points and the state count 6-0 but the more important question is was my forecast right?

Voice Referendum #1 – My Forecast Explained

October 13, 2023 By Nigel Marriott

Australians will reject the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on 14^th October 2023. My forecast is for NO to win the national vote by 17 percentage points and win the state count 6-0.

This article was first published on 11th October 2023. My forecast then was for NO to win 16 points and the state count 6-0.

Pay Gaps #29 – Government Guidance on Ethnicity Pay Gap Reporting – My thoughts

June 14, 2023 By Nigel Marriott

Two months ago, the Department for Business & Trade (DfB&T) in collaboration with the Equality Hub (EqHub) and Race Disparity Unit (RDU) published Ethnicity pay reporting: guidance for employers. This is “guidance for employers on how to measure, report on and address any ethnicity pay differences within their workforce” and fulfills Action 16 of the government’s Inclusive Britain action plan. I was asked to write the draft version of this guidance and I have to confess to being disappointed with the final version published. I will explain why I am disappointed and why I have decided to publish an edited version of my draft as well.

Pay Gap Case Study #6 – How Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister

November 11, 2022 By Nigel Marriott

Rishi Sunak is the UK’s first Prime Minister from a non-white ethnic minority. Did this happen by accident or were the Tories working towards this day over the last 20 years?

A recent article in the Sydney Morning Herald by an Australian journalist Latika Burke argues it was the latter. This is well worth reading because it goes into some depth about what the Conservatives did to get to this position. When I combine this article with what I have said before about closing pay and representation gaps, I consider the Conservative party to be a valuable case study for any employer who wishes to close their gaps.

Pay Gaps #25B – House of Lords’s debate on Ethnicity Pay Gaps – My thoughts

November 9, 2021 By Nigel Marriott

Is pay gap reporting about transparency or accountability? This was the main theme of the House of Lords debate on Ethnicity Pay Gap Reporting (EPGR) on 25th October 2021, unlike the Commons debate that preceded it in September. The 9 peers who spoke could be split between those who see EPGR as an exercise in employer transparency and those who see EPGR as an exercise in employer accountability and I consider this to be a fundamental question that has not yet been answered. In this article, I will discuss the implications of both answers to this question for any future EPGR legislation.

Pay Gaps #25A – House of Common’s debate on Ethnicity Pay Gaps – My thoughts

September 27, 2021 By Nigel Marriott

The UK Parliament debated Ethnicity Pay Gap Reporting (EPGR) on 20th September 2021 in Westminster Hall. Seven MPs spoke in the hour long debate and, as debates go, I thought it was actually quite good. There was cross party consensus on the merits of EPGR but I saw a divide between those who recognise EPGR is complex and requires trade offs and those who think the complexities of EPGR can be solved with government guidance.

Pay Gaps #24 – Briefing Note for Parliament’s debate on Ethnicity Pay Gaps

September 14, 2021 By Nigel Marriott

The UK Parliament is about to debate whether or not ethnicity pay gap reporting (EPGR) by UK employers should be made mandatory. The debate will start at 4.30pm on Monday 20th September 2021 and is a result of an e-petition reaching the threshold to require a parliamentary debate. To assist MPs, journalists, campaigners and anyone else interested in this debate, I have written a briefing note which lists 9 key points that need to be addressed during the debate.

Update 20th September – The Parliament TV link is here and my live-tweet thread is here.

UK General Elections #6 – Keir Starmer’s train to Downing Street

March 21, 2021 By Nigel Marriott

Keir Starmer has to match what Clement Attlee did in 1945 and beat what Tony Blair did in 1997 if he wants to form a Labour government at the next election. To arrive at Downing Street by the end of 2024, Starmer must get his party to board an InterCity 125 train and spend the next 3 years following the tracks I lay out in this article. As I will show, whichever track they take has to go through 125 English Conservative seats, most of which are in between cities. Hence InterCity 125 becomes the easy to remember name of Labour’s list of target seats.