Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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COVID19 Deaths #2E – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 5th June

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 9th June.

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COVID19 Deaths #2D – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 29th May

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 2nd June.

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COVID19 Deaths #2C – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 15th May

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 19th May.

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COVID19 Deaths #2B – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 8th May

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 12th May.

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COVID19 Deaths #2A – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 1st May

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I explore how the PHE series can be used to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England every Tuesday.

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UK General Election 2019 #2 – My forecast is the most accurate & beats the Exit Poll!

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At 2200 on Thursday 12th December 2019, the BBC/ITV/Sky Exit Poll was revealed to the nation and pointed to a large majority for the Conservatives.  Unlike 2017, I was able to turn to my wife and say “it looks like I will be right this time!”  By the end of the night, Gavin Freeguard from the Institute of Government was tweeting that not only was I the most accurate election forecaster of 2019, I was more accurate than the Exit Poll.

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UK General Election 2019 #1 – My Official Forecast

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My forecast for the 2019 UK General Election this Thursday is that the Conservatives will win a majority of 72 seats.  The margin of error in this forecast is very wide though due to the fact that 5 of of the last 7 general elections have seen a major polling error.  If there is a repeat of the GE2017 underestimate of Labour, then there will be another hung Parliament.

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Stats in the News #3 – Did I change Bath’s Clean Air Zone plans?

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The city of Bath is among a number of cities in the UK tasked with reducing Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) emissions.  NOx pollution is thought to contribute to poor health and the government has required clean air plans from the relevant local authorities to be in place before 2021.  I had no idea that this would result in my statistical expertise being needed to answer a political row over the BathBreathes2021 plans to charge cars driving into Bath and you can read my report to see what my answer was!

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EU Election 2019 #1 – How many MEPs will each party win?

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Here is my forecast for the election that was not supposed to be happening in the UK.  The Brexit Party is well on course to be the largest party and could even set the record for the best ever vote share by a party in the d’Hondt era of EU elections in the UK.  At the same time, the Liberal Democrats have the possibility of beating both the Conservatives and Labour parties in a UK-wide election for the first time since 1906.

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Stats Training Materials – Forecasting & Risk Modelling

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All organisations want to understand what has happened in the past and what will happen in the future.  The use of statistics and statistical thinking is essential to be a better forecaster but that doesn’t mean it is easy to do!  At the same time, we are bombarded with forecasts in the media and that can make it difficult to decide which forecasts to pay attention to and which can be ignored.

My course “Identifying Trends & Making Forecasts” is all about doing the basics right when it comes to analysing trends and making predictions.  To support this course, this post makes available a variety of material in the public domain covering the following themes:-

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