Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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UK Weather Tracker #88 – May 2024

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This was the warmest May on record in the UK which surprised me at first when I saw the data.  Then I saw that where I live (in the South West), it was the 3rd warmest but everywhere else in the UK set a new record.  Notably, the new temperature record was set despite below average sunshine and normal rainfall which may be another reason why I was surprised by the new temperature record.  Finally, as I pointed out in June last year, statistically the previous record looked artificially low relative to the upper decile so a new record is perhaps not that great a surprise.
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UK Weather Tracker #87 – April 2024

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The weather in the UK in April 2024 was abnormal but not in the way I thought.  My wife and I ended the month with stinking colds so surely it was a colder April than but no, the Met Office insists it was above.  It was noticeably darker and wetter than normal with this April being the 6th wettest on record.
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6 Nations History #4 – The men’s story so far in 2024

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The 2024 Six Nations (Men’s) ended with Ireland just missing out on a 2nd successive Grand Slam due to a last minute drop goal.  Italy recorded their best ever 6 Nations and left Wales with the wooden spoon for the 2nd time ever.  France, England and Scotland recorded plusses and minuses during their campaigns and all 3 nations will be seeking to go one better in 2025.

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UK Weather Trends #30 – Winter 2024

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Winter 2024 in the UK was the 5th sunniest & 8th wettest on record.  A year ago I postulated UK winters were entering a new era of being warm, wet & sunny.  I am now certain this is the case and my favoured hypothesis is that our winters are following a steady trend which began in the early 1980s.

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UK General Election 2024 #1 – Going beyond the swing

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Labour is on course for a crushing landslide later this year… or are they?  Many parallels with 1997 are being drawn at the moment but it’s too early to be making detailed forecasts.  Instead, I want to lay the foundations for my election forecast later this year by looking at what 100 years of UK electoral history is telling me.  I tell this story by assigning probabilities to 10 specific outcomes of interest and finish by explaining why 2024 is more likely to be a repeat of 2001 than 1997.

I remind you I was deemed the most accurate forecaster of the 2019 general election.  This article is the first in what I hope will be a series of articles which lead me to hold on to that accolade!

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Pay Gaps #30 – Why Disability Confident is the Template for Mandatory Ethnicity Pay Gap Reporting

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In July 2023, the UK government’s finally published its response to its 2018 consultation on whether #ethnicity #paygap #reporting should be made mandatory for UK employers.  A number of paragraphs from this response were quoted in an article published at the time in The Voice newspaper.

I want to go through two of those paragraphs because they highlight what is wrong with the current debate. I think the debate can be reset in a more productive direction if campaigners and the government were to focus on Action 71 of the Inclusive Britain action plan instead of Action 16.  In short, those who wish to implement mandatory ethnicity pay gap reporting should use existing Disability Confident reporting scheme as a template to build on and not copy and paste Gender Pay Gap Reporting.

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UK Weather Trends #29 – Annual Temperatures in 2023

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The 2023 calendar year was the 2nd hottest year on record in the UK just behind the hottest year ever in 2022.  Last year, I showed how a technique known as a Control Chart could be used to decide if the UK is now in a new warming trend and after adding 2023, my answer is now “a step change upwards has taken place but the pace of change is not yet clear“.

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