Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

You are here: Home / Nigel Marriott

UK General Election 2024 #5 – My Final Forecast as of 3rd July 2024

By

My third and final forecast of the number of seats to be won by each party in the 2024 UK General Election is –

  • CON 130 (+17)
  • LAB 420 (-17)
  • LD 50
  • SNP 25
  • GRN 3
  • PC 2
  • REF 2
  • OTH NI 18

The numbers in brackets are the changes from my second forecast of 30th June 2024.

This article is based on polling data as of 2000 on 3rd July 2024.  If more polling data comes in and causes me to change my forescript, the changes will be detailed in a postscript at the end of the article.

[Read more…] about UK General Election 2024 #5 – My Final Forecast as of 3rd July 2024

UK General Election 2024 #4 – My Forecast as of 30th June 2024

By

My second forecast of the number of seats to be won by each party in the 2024 UK General Election is –

  • CON 113 (+5)
  • LAB 437 (-5)
  • OTH 100 (unch)

The numbers in brackets are the changes from my first forecast of 23rd June 2024.

[Read more…] about UK General Election 2024 #4 – My Forecast as of 30th June 2024

UK General Election 2024 #2 – My Forecasting Model

By

My UK General Election 2024 forecasting model will be a top down version which I last used in 2010.  Top down approaches first predict how many seats each party will win in total before seeking to identify which seats each party wins.  This differs from the bottom-up approach I used in 2017 & 2019 where I forecast the outcome for each seat first and then aggregated the forecasts.

Here I explain how my 2024 forecast will be made but it finishes with a warning that I may have to dump my 2024 model in favour of the forecasting approach I used for the 2015 general election.

[Read more…] about UK General Election 2024 #2 – My Forecasting Model

UK General Elections #7 – How accurate are voting intention polls? – Revised

By

Voting intention polls in the UK are accurate after all!

For years, I’ve observed that UK polls on average underestimate the Conservative vote and overestimate Labour’s vote.  When I converted poll data into forecasts of seats won, I had to first estimate how much polling error there would be.  So what’s changed?  It turns out I was comparing polls to the wrong statistic, namely national vote share.  The correct comparator is in fact average vote share per seat.

[Read more…] about UK General Elections #7 – How accurate are voting intention polls? – Revised

UK Weather Trends #31 – Spring 2024

By

Spring 2024 in the UK was the hottest on record.  In some ways this is surprising given it was also the 10th dullest and 6th wettest spring on record which is inconsistent with trends over last 25 years and with the typical correlations seen in spring.  With any other dataset, I would ask for a check on the temperature data to see if it is correct.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #31 – Spring 2024

UK Weather Tracker #88 – May 2024

By

This was the warmest May on record in the UK which surprised me at first when I saw the data.  Then I saw that where I live (in the South West), it was the 3rd warmest but everywhere else in the UK set a new record.  Notably, the new temperature record was set despite below average sunshine and normal rainfall which may be another reason why I was surprised by the new temperature record.  Finally, as I pointed out in June last year, statistically the previous record looked artificially low relative to the upper decile so a new record is perhaps not that great a surprise.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #88 – May 2024

UK Weather Tracker #87 – April 2024

By

The weather in the UK in April 2024 was abnormal but not in the way I thought.  My wife and I ended the month with stinking colds so surely it was a colder April than but no, the Met Office insists it was above.  It was noticeably darker and wetter than normal with this April being the 6th wettest on record.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #87 – April 2024