Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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UK Local Elections #2B – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Final Forecast

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The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with less than a quarter of all votes cast.  My analysis shows it is a 5-way marginal, the likes of which have never been seen before in England.  All five parties have reasons to be optimistic but as of now, I and most other forecasters make the Greens favourites to win the 2025 WECA mayoralty.  With an election this tight, the parties get-out-the-vote efforts will play a big part in the final outcome.

All forecasts, charts & tables are based on the latest polls as of 26th April 2025.

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UK Local Elections #2A – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Initial Forecast

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The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with less than a quarter of all votes cast.  My analysis shows it is a 5-way marginal, the likes of which have never been seen in England before.  Why no-one has polled WECA is a mystery because this is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable elections I’ve ever seen.

My forecast puts the Greens first with 24% but it also puts Reform, Lib Dems & Labour just behind with each on 20% and the Conservative and Independent candidates bringing up the rear.  I am using a weighted average of four models of which 2 have Labour winning, 1 has the Greens winning and the 4th model (with the highest weight) has Reform winning.  That’s how unpredictable the election is and why we need a WECA specific opinion poll!

This article is based on polls as of 7th April 2025.  My updated forecast based on polls as of 26th April can be found here.

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Stats Training Materials – Statistical Inference & Hypothesis Testing

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Mention P-values and most people will probably shudder at some memory of an incomprehensible lecture or lesson on statistical tests.  Words like null hypotheses, t-tests, statistical significance might pop into your mind with little understanding of what they are about.  What you may know is that scientists have to report a p-value for any experiment they do or do they?

The area of Statistical Inference is a core area of study for any statistician.  Put simply, Inference means to infer from the observations you’ve made about your data and to draw conclusions about what might be happening in real life.  There are two parts to Inference.

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UK Weather Trends #35 – Winter 2025

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Winter 2025 in the UK was unremarkable.  Last year I explained I believe our winters are following a steady trend to warmer and wetter winters which began in the early 1980s.  The data for the winter just gone doesn’t my conclusions.

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Stats Training Materials – Forecasting & Risk Modelling

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All organisations want to understand what happened in the past and what will happen in the future.  The use of statistics and statistical thinking is essential to be a better forecaster but that doesn’t mean it is easy!  At the same time, we are bombarded with forecasts in the media which can make it difficult to decide which forecasts to pay attention to and which can be ignored.

My course “Identifying Trends & Making Forecasts” is all about doing the basics right when it comes to analysing trends and making predictions.  To support this course, here are links to material in the public domain covering the following themes:-

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Stats Training Materials – Sampling & Surveys

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The core expertise that Statisticians offer to the world is drawing conclusions from small samples.  Therefore, knowing how to design surveys, estimate the right sample size, decide on the right way to ask the question or measure a property are all essential skills for any statistical thinker.  The skills you need to be competent in Sampling & Surveys are best captured by my Survey Wheel.

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UK Weather Trends #34 – Annual Temperatures in 2024

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The 2024 calendar year was the 4th hottest year on record in the UK.  Last year, I used a Control Chart to conclude “a step change upwards (in UK temperatures) has taken place but the pace of change is not yet clear“.  I am now less confident in my conclusion after updating with 2024 data, especially when I look at temperature trends based on the meteorological year of December to November instead.

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