Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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Stats Training Materials – Forecasting & Risk Modelling

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All organisations want to understand what happened in the past and what will happen in the future.  The use of statistics and statistical thinking is essential to be a better forecaster but that doesn’t mean it is easy!  At the same time, we are bombarded with forecasts in the media which can make it difficult to decide which forecasts to pay attention to and which can be ignored.

My course “Identifying Trends & Making Forecasts” is all about doing the basics right when it comes to analysing trends and making predictions.  To support this course, here are links to material in the public domain covering the following themes:-

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Stats Training Materials – Sampling & Surveys

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The core expertise that Statisticians offer to the world is drawing conclusions from small samples.  Therefore, knowing how to design surveys, estimate the right sample size, decide on the right way to ask the question or measure a property are all essential skills for any statistical thinker.  The skills you need to be competent in Sampling & Surveys are best captured by my Survey Wheel.

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UK Weather Trends #34 – Annual Temperatures in 2024

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The 2024 calendar year was the 4th hottest year on record in the UK.  Last year, I used a Control Chart to conclude “a step change upwards (in UK temperatures) has taken place but the pace of change is not yet clear“.  I am now less confident in my conclusion after updating with 2024 data, especially when I look at temperature trends based on the meteorological year of December to November instead.

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Pay Gap Trends #8A – Is a Smaller Pay Gap Good News?

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The gender pay gap in the UK continues to narrow in 2024.  The good news is the pay gap is narrowing at a faster rate since 2017 when Gender Pay Gap Reporting (GPGR) for employers become mandatory.  The bad news is women are not progressing up the pay scale and are working longer hours, men today are worse off than their fathers were 20 years ago and the smaller pay gap is simply the by-product of wage compression induced by above inflation rises in the minimum wage.  This is a sobering picture which tells me on balance, a smaller pay gap is not good news.

This article is part A of a 2-part blog.  Part B will be published at a later date.

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Trophy Winners #4 – The GOATs of World Snooker (Mens) – 1969 to 2024

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Judd Trump has won the 2024 UK Championship which is the 5th Triple Crown title of his career.  Does that make him a GOAT (Greatest Of All Time) in men’s Snooker?  Using the criteria I recommend in this article, Trump will become a GOAT if he wins another World Championship.

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