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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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UK Weather Tracker #83 – December 2023

January 4, 2024 By Nigel Marriott

The 2024 meteorological year began with a warm, wet, dark & stormy December that combine to create the 4th most abnormal December on record.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #83 – December 2023

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Index, Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

Pay Gap Trends #7 – UK Ethnicity Pay Gap 2012 to 2022

January 3, 2024 By Nigel Marriott

In November 2023, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) resumed publishing estimates of the UK Ethnicity Pay Gap after a 3 year hiatus for the Covid19 pandemic.  I have organised this data into a user-friendly (hopefully!) Microsoft Excel spreadsheet which allows you to see how the median hourly pay has changed between 2012 & 2022 for a variety of ethnicities & other categories.  This article explains how you can use this spreadsheet and why you must look at ethnicity pay gap data in a different way than you would for gender pay gap data.

[Read more…] about Pay Gap Trends #7 – UK Ethnicity Pay Gap 2012 to 2022

Filed Under: Diversity, Forecasting Tagged With: Annual Population Survey, Confidence Intervals, Ethnicity, Ethnicity Pay Gap, intersectional, Median, moving average, ONS, pay gap trends, trend analysis

UK Weather Trends #28 – Autumn 2023

December 4, 2023 By Nigel Marriott

The UK autumn in 2023 was the 6th warmest on record and consistent with the step change in autumnal climate seen 25 years ago.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #28 – Autumn 2023

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Tracker #82 – November 2023

December 4, 2023 By Nigel Marriott

It might have ended with a cold snap but on every metric, November 2023 in the UK was as average as it was possible to be!
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #82 – November 2023

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Index, Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

Voice Referendum #2 – My Forecast Reviewed

November 5, 2023 By Nigel Marriott

Australians rejected the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on 14th October 2023.  NO won the national vote by 20.1 percentage points and the state count 6-0 but the more important question is was my forecast right?

[Read more…] about Voice Referendum #2 – My Forecast Reviewed

Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting Tagged With: Australia, Brexit, Election forecasting, Forecasting model, Parliament, Politics, Referendum, trend analysis, Trend extrapolation, Voice

UK Weather Tracker #81 – October 2023

November 4, 2023 By Nigel Marriott

October 2023 was the 2nd stormiest on record in the UK, behind 1945, as measured by my Rain Intensity measure.  It was also the 6th wettest.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #81 – October 2023

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Index, Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

Voice Referendum #1 – My Forecast Explained

October 13, 2023 By Nigel Marriott

Australians will reject the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on 14th October 2023.  My forecast is for NO to win the national vote by 17 percentage points and win the state count 6-0.

This article was first published on 11th October 2023.  My forecast then was for NO to win 16 points and the state count 6-0.

[Read more…] about Voice Referendum #1 – My Forecast Explained

Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting, Polling Tagged With: Australia, Brexit, Election forecasting, Forecasting model, Parliament, Politics, Referendum, trend analysis, Trend extrapolation, Voice

UK Weather Tracker #80 – September 2023

October 5, 2023 By Nigel Marriott

September 2023 was the joint warmest on record in the UK, matching September 2006.  It was also the 4th stormiest September based on Rain Intensity.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #80 – September 2023

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Index, Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

Pay Gap Data #6 – Where can I find gender pay gap data for 2022?

October 4, 2023 By Nigel Marriott

This post was updated on 4th October 2023 with the latest data.

The government requires all employers with a headcount of 250 or more on their snapshot date to submit gender pay gap data.  All data is available to the public and can be found on the government’s gender pay gap website.  I have downloaded this data and created a spreadsheet tool to present the data in a more user-friendly and visual format.

[Read more…] about Pay Gap Data #6 – Where can I find gender pay gap data for 2022?

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, data quality, Gender Pay Gap, pay gap data, Presenting data

UK Weather Trends #27 – Summer 2023

September 10, 2023 By Nigel Marriott

The hottest June on record resulted in the 8th warmest summer on record in the UK.  However, rain and sunshine levels were normal sowhen looking at the summer using principal components, the 2023 summer was above average but not outstanding.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #27 – Summer 2023

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

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