Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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Voice Referendum #1 – My Forecast Explained

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Australians will reject the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on 14th October 2023.  My forecast is for NO to win the national vote by 17 percentage points and win the state count 6-0.

This article was first published on 11th October 2023.  My forecast then was for NO to win 16 points and the state count 6-0.

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Pay Gap Data #6 – Where can I find gender pay gap data for 2022?

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This post was updated on 4th October 2023 with the latest data.

The government requires all employers with a headcount of 250 or more on their snapshot date to submit gender pay gap data.  All data is available to the public and can be found on the government’s gender pay gap website.  I have downloaded this data and created a spreadsheet tool to present the data in a more user-friendly and visual format.

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UK Weather Trends #27 – Summer 2023

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The hottest June on record resulted in the 8th warmest summer on record in the UK.  However, rain and sunshine levels were normal sowhen looking at the summer using principal components, the 2023 summer was above average but not outstanding.

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UK Weather Tracker #77 – June 2023

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June 2023 was the hottest on record in the UK.  It was also the 4th sunniest & 7th widest temperature range but rainfall was normal so my abnormality index did not exceed my threshold to be marked as an unusual month.  When you look back at the historical temperature range,  one could say that a June as hot as this was overdue which leaves May as the only month overdue for a new record.
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Pay Gaps #29 – Government Guidance on Ethnicity Pay Gap Reporting – My thoughts

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Two months ago, the Department for Business & Trade (DfB&T) in collaboration with the Equality Hub (EqHub) and Race Disparity Unit (RDU) published Ethnicity pay reporting: guidance for employers.  This is “guidance for employers on how to measure, report on and address any ethnicity pay differences within their workforce” and fulfills Action 16 of the government’s Inclusive Britain action plan.  I was asked to write the draft version of this guidance and I have to confess to being disappointed with the final version published.  I will explain why I am disappointed and why I have decided to publish an edited version of my draft as well.

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Cricket #1 – Sir Donald Bradman, the 9 Sigma GOAT

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Sir Donald Bradman is the GOAT (Greatest of All Time) of sporting GOATs.  All cricket lovers accept the great Australian is the greatest batsman of all time but how many are aware he was 9 standard deviations better than the next best 166 batsmen of all time? I can’t think any other sports person who comes close to this standard which is why I say this 9 Sigma GOAT is the greatest sports person of all time.

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