An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future
A good forecaster should always provide an easily accessible list of forecasts made, how the forecast was arrived at and how accurate it ended up being. At long last, here is my election forecasting track record updated with the 2024 UK General Election so finally I am a good forecaster I hope!
[Read more…] about Forecasting #3 – How Accurate are My Election Forecasts?
My third and final forecast of the number of seats to be won by each party in the 2024 UK General Election is –
The numbers in brackets are the changes from my second forecast of 30th June 2024.
This article is based on polling data as of 2000 on 3rd July 2024. If more polling data comes in and causes me to change my forescript, the changes will be detailed in a postscript at the end of the article.
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2024 #5 – My Final Forecast as of 3rd July 2024
My second forecast of the number of seats to be won by each party in the 2024 UK General Election is –
The numbers in brackets are the changes from my first forecast of 23rd June 2024.
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2024 #4 – My Forecast as of 30th June 2024
My first forecast of the number of seats to be won by each party in the 2024 UK General Election is –
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2024 #3 – My Forecast as of 23rd June 2024
My UK General Election 2024 forecasting model will be a top down version which I last used in 2010. Top down approaches first predict how many seats each party will win in total before seeking to identify which seats each party wins. This differs from the bottom-up approach I used in 2017 & 2019 where I forecast the outcome for each seat first and then aggregated the forecasts.
Here I explain how my 2024 forecast will be made but it finishes with a warning that I may have to dump my 2024 model in favour of the forecasting approach I used for the 2015 general election.
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2024 #2 – My Forecasting Model
Australians rejected the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on 14th October 2023. NO won the national vote by 20.1 percentage points and the state count 6-0 but the more important question is was my forecast right?
[Read more…] about Voice Referendum #2 – My Forecast Reviewed
Australians will reject the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on 14th October 2023. My forecast is for NO to win the national vote by 17 percentage points and win the state count 6-0.
This article was first published on 11th October 2023. My forecast then was for NO to win 16 points and the state count 6-0.
[Read more…] about Voice Referendum #1 – My Forecast Explained
In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths. However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England. In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 30th June.
[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2H – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 26th June
In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths. However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England. In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 23rd June.
[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2G – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 19th June
In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths. However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England. In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 16th June.
[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2F – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 12th June
