• Blog home
  • Elections
  • Polling
  • Sport
  • Weather
  • Forecasting
  • Diversity
  • Stats Training
  • Misc
  • Archive
  • Twitter
  • Back to Marriott Statistical Consulting

Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

You are here: Home / Archives for Swing

By Elections #3 – Hartlepool + Chesham & Amersham + Batley & Spen = Brexit Realignment?

May 24, 2021 By Nigel

The Conservatives victory in the Hartlepool by-election means the Brexit realignment of British politics is still taking place … or does it?  In fact, Labour’s defeat in Hartlepool for the first time in over 60 years should be put down to tactical voting rather than Brexit realignment, at least for now.   It will be the two upcoming by-elections in Batley & Spen on 1st July representing the Red Wall and Chesham & Amersham on 17th June 2021 representing the Blue Sea that will answer the question “Is Brexit realignment is still continuing or did it end in December 2019?”

[Read more…] about By Elections #3 – Hartlepool + Chesham & Amersham + Batley & Spen = Brexit Realignment?

Filed Under: Elections Tagged With: Batley & Spen, Blue Sea, Brexit, By-elections, Chesham & Amersham, Conservative, elections, General Election 2024, Greens, Hartlepool, Labour, Lib Dems, Politics, Realignment, Red Wall, Swing, Tactical Voting

UK General Elections #6 – Keir Starmer’s train to Downing Street

March 21, 2021 By Nigel

Keir Starmer has to match what Clement Attlee did in 1945 and beat what Tony Blair did in 1997 if he wants to form a Labour government at the next election.  To arrive at Downing Street by the end of 2024, Starmer must get his party to board an InterCity 125 train and spend the next 3 years following the tracks I lay out in this article.  As I will show, whichever track they take has to go through 125 English Conservative seats, most of which are in between cities.  Hence InterCity 125 becomes the easy to remember name of Labour’s list of target seats.

[Read more…] about UK General Elections #6 – Keir Starmer’s train to Downing Street

Filed Under: Elections Tagged With: Boundary review, Brexit, Conservative, elections, EU Referendum, General Election 2024, Labour, Lib Dems, Majority, Parliament, Politics, SNP, Swing, Tories

Search this site

More blogs

Pay Gap Data #6 – Where can I find gender pay gap data for 2022?

This post was updated on 27th March 2023 with the latest data The government requires all … [Read More...] about Pay Gap Data #6 – Where can I find gender pay gap data for 2022?

6 Nations History #3 – The men’s story so far in 2023

The 2023 Six Nations (Men's) ended with Ireland beating England to win their 3rd 6 Nations Grand … [Read More...] about 6 Nations History #3 – The men’s story so far in 2023

Pay Gap Case Study #7 – Does the Department for Work & Pensions have a Gender Pay Gap?

The Department for Work & Pensions (DWP) says for every £1 paid to the median man in March 2022, … [Read More...] about Pay Gap Case Study #7 – Does the Department for Work & Pensions have a Gender Pay Gap?

UK Weather Trends #24 – Winter 2023

Winter 2023 was the 10th sunniest on record but I doubt we may have noticed.  There are indications … [Read More...] about UK Weather Trends #24 – Winter 2023

UK Weather Tracker #73 – February 2023

It was the 7th warmest February on record in the UK whilst being dry and sunny. … [Read More...] about UK Weather Tracker #73 – February 2023

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Join our newsletter mailing list

Receive latest news, articles and offers

Select the categories of interest:

We are GDPR compliant. Read our privacy and Cookie policy for more info.

Check your inbox or spam folder to confirm your subscription.

Copyright © 2023 ·Registered in England, Company No. 5577275, VAT No. 883304029. Registered Office – 65 Bristol Road, Keynsham, Bristol, BS31 1EG