An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future
The 2024 Six Nations (Men’s) ended with Ireland just missing out on a 2nd successive Grand Slam due to a last minute drop goal. Italy recorded their best ever 6 Nations and left Wales with the wooden spoon for the 2nd time ever. France, England and Scotland recorded plusses and minuses during their campaigns and all 3 nations will be seeking to go one better in 2025.
[Read more…] about 6 Nations History #4 – The men’s story so far in 2024
Manchester City have won the Champions League at long last after beating Inter Milan 1-0 in Istanbul. They become the 6th English club to reach the summit of the European club landscape and it their 17th trophy in 13 years. Does that mean we can now call Man City a Dynasty comparable to the two undisputed dynasties of Liverpool in the 70s & 80s and Manchester United in the 90s & 00s? I am sure Man City fans will say yes but I say not yet.
[Read more…] about Sporting GOATs #2 – Are Man City now a Dynasty?
The 2023 Six Nations (Men’s) ended with Ireland beating England to win their 3rd 6 Nations Grand Slam in the last 15 years. France ran them close and Scotland recorded their 1st top 3 placing since 2018. England & Wales disappointed their fans whilst Italy have some grounds for optimism despite their wooden spoon.
[Read more…] about 6 Nations History #3 – The men’s story so far in 2023
The 2022 Six Nations (Men’s) ended with France beating England to win their 1st Grand Slam and 6 Nations title since 2010. Ireland ran them close scoring 24 tries in all (joint 2nd highest on record) and Italy won their 1st game in 36 matches in dramatic fashion in Cardiff. England, Wales and Scotland all disappointed their fans and have questions to answer.
[Read more…] about 6 Nations History #2 – The men’s story so far in 2022
Will there be any football this Christmas? The Omicron variant of COVID19 is wreaking havoc with football and rugby schedules and the traditional Boxing Day lineup is in danger of being cancelled. So what will football fans do instead? The good news is I am giving a Christmas present to all football supporter that is almost as good as the real thing. All you need are 2 packs of playing cards, a pen and paper or a spreadsheet and you can play a simple football simulation game which guarantees fun and excitement for all.
The 2021 Six Nations (Men’s) ended with Wales winning the title after Scotland beat France in Paris to snuff out France’s attempt to win the title for the first time since 2010. Wales let a Grand Slam slip after conceding a try in injury time and as an England fan who was there at Wembley in 1999 I know exactly how the Welsh feel!
[Read more…] about 6 Nations History #1 – The men’s story so far in 2021
England will take on South Africa in the 2019 Rugby World Cup final this weekend and I am predicting a win for England by 1 to 6 points. In other words, it will be close and exciting!
[Read more…] about Rugby World Cup #4 – Who will win in 2019? – Final
After 43 matches with 37 correctly predicted, the stage is set for an epic final between England & South Africa to settle the 2019 Rugby World Cup (Men’s). Ahead of making a prediction for that match, I have examined my model in depth and in this post I explore whether or not the model needs to be adjusted.
[Read more…] about Rugby World Cup #3 – Who will win in 2019? – Model Evaluation
It’s the quarter finals tomorrow and it’s time for me to predict the outcomes using World Rugby’s rankings. Although I got 33 out of 37 matches right in the pool stages, the 4 errors are enough to change my prediction of who will win.
[Read more…] about Rugby World Cup #2 – Who will win in 2019? – Knockout Round
Augustin Pichot, vice-president of World Rugby, may not like its ranking system but ahead of the 2019 Rugby World Cup (Men’s), I have been able to use rankings to correctly predict 80% of international matches since 2017. For the world cup that starts this week, I used a dynamic ranking model to predict all matches and it shows that 4 countries cannot be separated for the trophy so we are in for some very exciting matches!
[Read more…] about Rugby World Cup #1 – Who will win in 2019? – Pool Stage
