• Blog home
  • Elections
  • Polling
  • Sport
  • Weather
  • Forecasting
  • Diversity
  • Stats Training
  • Misc
  • Archive
  • Twitter
  • Back to Marriott Statistical Consulting

Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

You are here: Home / Archives for Sport Analytics

Autumn Internationals #2 – Who will win in 2017? – Week 2

November 17, 2017 By Nigel

The second round of the Autumn Internationals take place tomorrow and some tasty matches await us.  Last week, I used World Rugby’s Rankings to predict who will win and to set expectations for each nation for the whole series and my predictions got off to a good start with 5 out of the 6 matches correctly called.  This performance is consistent with a similar set of predictions I made for the 2017 6 Nations where I correctly called 12 out of 15 games.

[Read more…] about Autumn Internationals #2 – Who will win in 2017? – Week 2

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Autumn Internationals, Forecasts, Rugby, Sport Analytics

Autumn Internationals #1 – Who will win in 2017? – Week 1

November 9, 2017 By Nigel

It’s November again and for rugby fans, it means the Autumn Internationals are on us again.  The nations of Europe welcome teams from all over the world for the next 3 or 4 weeks to test each other and find out where they stand.  Ahead of the first round of matches, I have used World Rugby’s Rankings to predict who will win and to set expectations for each nation.

Earlier this year, I made a similar set of predictions for the 2017 6 Nations and correctly called 12 out of 15 games.  The prediction model is explained in one of my 6 Nations post but World Rugby’s goal is that rankings can be used as a predictive tool.  The idea is to take each team’s current ranking and add 3 points to teams playing at home.  Whoever has the higher ranking is then expected to win but clearly the closer the rankings, the closer the game is expected to be. [Read more…] about Autumn Internationals #1 – Who will win in 2017? – Week 1

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Autumn Internationals, Forecasts, Rugby, Sport Analytics

Sporting GOATs #1 – English football clubs

September 9, 2017 By Nigel

My team Newcastle United are also known as the Magpies but how much of a GOAT are they?  In recent years, this acronym has become popular as a shorthand for Greatest Of All Time.  Given that the Magpies have not won a trophy in the 40+ years that I have supported them, I know they are not the number 1 GOAT in English football but where would they sit in a GOAT table?

Ranking tables are extremely common in sport and sport analytics as they are easily understood by fans.  If I want to compile a ranking of all English football clubs, there are two decisions I have to make:

  1. Over what time period will the data come from? (ERA)
  2. On what measure will I rank the clubs? (METRIC)

In this post I will use 3 eras and 3 metrics to creating 9 GOAT tables in all.  Read on to find out which club is #1 GOAT! [Read more…] about Sporting GOATs #1 – English football clubs

Filed Under: Sport Tagged With: Football, GOAT, Premier League, Rankings, Sport Analytics

EPL 2017/18 #1 – What are you expecting for your team this season?

August 12, 2017 By Nigel

The 2017/18 English Premier League (EPL) kicked off yesterday with Arsenal beating Hull 4-3.  Tomorrow, my team Newcastle United will be playing my wife’s team Tottenham Hotspur so marital harmony could be in short supply!  Be that as it may, what should fans of the Magpies and Spurs be expecting this season?  Newcastle are a recently promoted team whilst Spurs were runners up last season  Is there a way to set realistic expectations for the 2017/18 season?

[Read more…] about EPL 2017/18 #1 – What are you expecting for your team this season?

Filed Under: Sport Tagged With: EPL, Football, Premier League, Presenting data, Sport Analytics

6 Nations #6 – How did the rankings do in 2017?

March 23, 2017 By Nigel

Ireland’s win over England brought the 2017 6 Nations to a close.  England were crowned champions but were not able to top it with back to back grand slams.  Over the last few weeks, I have been using the World Rugby Rankings to predict the outcome of the matches and now it is time to see how they performed.

[Read more…] about 6 Nations #6 – How did the rankings do in 2017?

Filed Under: Forecasting, Sport Tagged With: 6 Nations, Forecasts, Rugby, Sport Analytics

6 Nations #3 – Who will win in 2017? – week 3

February 18, 2017 By Nigel

So the 6 Nations is underway again and the traditional rivalries are reheated. Who will win is once again on all the sports pages and there are no shortages of pundits willing to give their opinions. If you want a different way to predict what will happen, why not use the World Rugby Rankings?

Ranking tables play a big part in a number of sports but they are not widely understood among sports fans. At bottom though, rankings are intended to be used as a predictive tool for what will happen in a match. A good ranking system will be more accurate in predicting outcomes than a bad ranking system. However, a perfect ranking system is something we don’t want otherwise sport becomes boring as we will always know the outcome in advance. So as a forecasting tool, a ranking system is a curious beast. We want it to be good but not great.

[Read more…] about 6 Nations #3 – Who will win in 2017? – week 3

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: 6 Nations, Forecasts, Rankings, Rugby, Sport Analytics

  • « Go to Previous Page
  • Page 1
  • Page 2
  • Page 3

Search this site

More blogs

Forecasting #3 – How Accurate are My Election Forecasts?

A good forecaster should always provide an easily accessible list of forecasts made, how the … [Read More...] about Forecasting #3 – How Accurate are My Election Forecasts?

UK Local Elections #2C – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – Review of My Forecast

Labour have retained the West of England Combined Authority (WECA) Mayoralty  As I predicted, the … [Read More...] about UK Local Elections #2C – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – Review of My Forecast

UK Weather Tracker #99 – April 2025

April 2025 was the sunniest April on record in the UK.  It beat the previous record set in 2021 … [Read More...] about UK Weather Tracker #99 – April 2025

UK Local Elections #2B – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Final Forecast

The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with … [Read More...] about UK Local Elections #2B – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Final Forecast

UK Local Elections #2A – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Initial Forecast

The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with … [Read More...] about UK Local Elections #2A – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Initial Forecast

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Join our newsletter mailing list

Receive latest news, articles and offers

Select the categories of interest:

We are GDPR compliant. Read our privacy and Cookie policy for more info.

Check your inbox or spam folder to confirm your subscription.

Copyright © 2025 ·Registered in England, Company No. 5577275, VAT No. 883304029. Registered Office – 65 Bristol Road, Keynsham, Bristol, BS31 1EG