trend analysis

UK Weather Trends #39 – Annual Temperatures in 2025

January 6, 2026 By Nigel Marriott

The year 2025 was both the hottest and 2nd hottest year on record in the UK. Last year, I used a CUSUM Chart to conclude “if the calendar year average is greater than 9.48 degrees Celsius and the meteorological year average is greater than 9.33 degrees Celsius … (this will) signal an upwards trend change“. By co-incidence, the average 24-hour temperature across the UK in 2025 was 10.09 degrees Celsius for both the calendar (Jan to Dec) and the meteorological (Dec to Nov) years which is clearly higher than these thresholds. It’s only taken me four years of writing to conclude a new upward trend in UK temperatures has begun.

Electoral Trends #1 – The Fragmentation of the West

December 5, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

Last month’s General Election in The Netherlands was won by a party with less than 17% of the national vote. Dutch voters, politicians and pundits are now discussing what this means for a governing coalition which is likely to take a number of months complete. For myself, the election was yet another data point showing the fragmentation of the electorate in the West is the key trend over the last 40 years. As yet, there is no sign of this trend coming to an end and what the future holds I cannot tell.

UK Weather Trends #38 – Autumn 2025

December 3, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

The UK autumn in 2025 was warmer and wetter than usual but not exceptionally so and continues to be consistent with the step change in our autumnal climate seen 25 years ago.

UK Weather Trends #37 – Summer 2025

September 7, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

The 2025 meteorological summer in the UK was the warmest on record. This came less from heatwaves setting new temperate peaks and more from steady warmth throughout June, July & August. Overall it was sunnier and drier than usual in the UK but not to any significant degree. As a result, whilst the 1st principal component confirms the summer can be regarded as a “good summer”, it was a long way from being an exceptional summer like 1976 & 1995.

UK Weather Trends #36 – Spring 2025

June 6, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

Spring 2025 in the UK was both the hottest & sunniest on record as well as the 5th driest. For sunshine, 2025 was even more extraordinary than the exceptionally sunny spring in 2020 and was the result of 3 very sunny months in a row. For temperature, there was no doubt in my mind this time the data was correct unlike last year when I questioned whether spring 2024 was in fact the warmest in record. The Met Office has not corrected the record so apparently it was.

UK Weather Trends #35 – Winter 2025

March 5, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

Winter 2025 in the UK was unremarkable. Last year I explained I believe our winters are following a steady trend to warmer and wetter winters which began in the early 1980s. The data for the winter just gone doesn’t my conclusions.

UK Weather Trends #34 – Annual Temperatures in 2024

January 7, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

The 2024 calendar year was the 4th hottest year on record in the UK. Last year, I used a Control Chart to conclude “a step change upwards (in UK temperatures) has taken place but the pace of change is not yet clear“. I am now less confident in my conclusion after updating with 2024 data, especially when I look at temperature trends based on the meteorological year of December to November instead.

Pay Gap Trends #8A – Is a Smaller Pay Gap Good News?

January 3, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

The gender pay gap in the UK continues to narrow in 2024. The good news is the pay gap is narrowing at a faster rate since 2017 when Gender Pay Gap Reporting (GPGR) for employers become mandatory. The bad news is women are not progressing up the pay scale and are working longer hours, men today are worse off than their fathers were 20 years ago and the smaller pay gap is simply the by-product of wage compression induced by above inflation rises in the minimum wage. This is a sobering picture which tells me on balance, a smaller pay gap is not good news.

This article is part A of a 2-part blog. Part B will be published at a later date.

UK Weather Trends #33 – Autumn 2024

December 4, 2024 By Nigel Marriott

The UK autumn in 2024 was essentially unremarkable and mostly consistent with the step change in autumnal climate seen 25 years ago.

UK Weather Trends #32 – Summer 2024

September 4, 2024 By Nigel Marriott

The 2024 meteorological summer in the UK was unremarkable on all weather variables. In fact 2024 was so unremarkable that it is in fact the most “normal” summer of the last 114 years when I compare the data to the last 50 years which I regard as “living memory”.