An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future
This is the third of my seat forecasts for the 2017 general election and my first for a Welsh seat. By co-incidence the second Welsh Barometer poll was published today so I am able to explore this seat using a Welsh specific poll.
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2017 Seat Forecast #3 – Cardiff South & Penarth, Wales
Spring has arrived and so far, we can say that it has been a pleasant spring. My latest UK weather tracker shows that it was the 5th warmest April since 1910.
This is the second of my seat forecasts for the 2017 general election. I have to be honest, it never occurred to me that I would be covering Kensington as that seems a straightforward seat to forecast. However, Kensington now has the distinction of being the first seat to have a constituency poll published and the results provide an insight as to which might be the best forecasting model to use.
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2017 Seat Forecast #2 – Kensington, London
The French pollsters are congratulating themselves for getting the first round of the French Presidential Election right last weekend. Recently Nate Silver criticised the accuracy of polling in the UK. For British pollsters, 2015 was a year they would like to forget and I am sure many of them will be nervous of the forthcoming general election but how nervous should they be?
I was one of the few people to predict the polls would be wrong in 2015 though the magnitude of the error was larger than I expected. Two years ago I based my conclusions on an analysis of polls between 1992 & 2015 but for the 2017 election I have analysed a longer time period from 1950 to 2015. I have made use of the excellent work done by Mark Pack who has systematically recorded every opinion poll published since 1945. Based on this, I am expecting the polls to be in error again with the Conservative lead over Labour underestimated by 2.6%.
[Read more…] about UK General Elections #1 – How accurate are the opinion polls?
Here you can find my latest forecast of the 2017 UK General Election on 8th June. My forecast uses data from my latest UK Opinion Poll Tracker and it is worth reading that post in conjunction with this post.
My latest prediction using uniform regional swing is that the Conservatives will make a net gain of 78 seats resulting in a working majority of 171 seats. Such a majority would be on a par with Tony Blair’s landslides of 1997 & 2001. If anti-Conservative tactical voting takes place then this has the potential to reduce the Conservatives working majority to 135 seats which I am sure Theresa May would be very happy with! [Read more…] about UK General Election 2017 Forecast #1 – Prediction as of 28th April 2017
The Prime Minister has called for a General Election on 8th June 2017 and parliament has approved this. For the next 6 weeks, opinion polls will be coming in thick and fast and I will do my part by keeping my opinion poll tracker up to date and explaining what the latest trends are. I will use these trends to update my 2017 General Election Seat Predictions and you should read that post in conjunction with this one.
The latest situation is that the Conservatives hold an 18% lead over Labour and are on track for a working majority of 171 seats. Labour are set for their worst general election vote share since 1918 and the Lib Dems have overtaken UKIP to regain 3rd place in the polls for the first time since December 2013.
[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #3 – 28th April 2017
If you are familiar with my UK Opinion Poll Tracker, you will know that one of my key charts for making predictions of the 2017 General Election is R1 which shows the changes in vote share by region.
As I have explained, I track the regional breakdowns to produce this chart. Every now and again, a full on poll takes place to explore a region in more detail and this allows me to check how good chart R1 is.
[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #4 – My Welsh Barometer Poll Forecast Was Correct!
Fake news has entered the political dictionary over the last year. Suddenly, politicians and commentators are worried that elections are being influenced by false stories being circulated that appear to be genuine. Social media platforms are under pressure to filter out such stories raising the old questions of censorship and “who guards the guards?” However, evidence on the extent and influence of fake news is thin on the ground.
A recent article from the BBC website “The rise of left wing, anti-Trump fake news” has provided some firmer evidence which I think makes a good case study for my evidence hierarchy or circle.
[Read more…] about Stats in the News #2 – Who reads fake news?
Spring has arrived and so far, we can say that it has been a pleasant spring. My latest UK weather tracker shows that it was the 5th warmest March since 1910.
Michael Gove, Sky News, 3rd June 2016
This was one of the most memorable quotes during the EU referendum in 2016 and came in response to a question as to why the forecasts of a whole list of organisations such as the IMF should be ignored. It prompted a flurry of rebuttals and articles supporting or damning him and the debate has not gone away.
Like so many quotes, it has already become distorted. I strongly recommend you listen to the full question and answer because here is his quote in its entirety.
When I read this full quote I realised I am in complete agreement with Michael Gove.
[Read more…] about Forecasting#1 – How do you identify a good forecaster?
