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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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Rugby World Cup #1 – Who will win in 2019? – Pool Stage

September 19, 2019 By Nigel Marriott

Augustin Pichot, vice-president of World Rugby, may not like its ranking system but ahead of the 2019 Rugby World Cup (Men’s), I have been able to use rankings to correctly predict 80% of international matches since 2017.  For the world cup that starts this week, I used a dynamic ranking model to predict all matches and it shows that 4 countries cannot be separated for the trophy so we are in for some very exciting matches!

[Read more…] about Rugby World Cup #1 – Who will win in 2019? – Pool Stage

Filed Under: Forecasting, Sport Tagged With: Forecasts, Rugby, RWC2019, Sport Analytics, World Cup

UK Weather Trends #10 – Summer 2019

September 12, 2019 By Nigel Marriott

The 2019 summer was the 7th wettest on record but was also unusually warm given the amount of rain that fell.  I have made a prediction that summer 2020 will not be a good one!

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #10 – Summer 2019

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Tracker #31 – August 2019

September 12, 2019 By Nigel Marriott

The UK experienced a warm and wet August this year.  Rain intensity was the 4th highest on record which was similar to what was experienced in June & July thus making the 2019 summer the 2nd most stormy summer on record after 2007.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #31 – August 2019

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

UK Economy Tracker #5 – 2019 Q2

August 13, 2019 By Nigel Marriott

Q2 was a mixed picture for the UK economy.  Quarterly GDP fell for the first time since whilst Economic Inactivity fell to record lows and Wage Inflation was the highest since the 2008 recession.

[Read more…] about UK Economy Tracker #5 – 2019 Q2

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Economy Tracker, Presenting data, Trackers, UK Economy

Pay Gaps #11 – A median sized problem with 10 solutions from the RSS

August 7, 2019 By Nigel Marriott

The Royal Statistical Society (RSS) and I have published two articles to help employers better calculate and interpret their gender pay gaps.  The first article lists 10 recommendations to improve the quality of gender pay gap reporting, the second is an article in Significance magazine which explores in more detail, two of the recommendations concerning medians and quartiles.

[Read more…] about Pay Gaps #11 – A median sized problem with 10 solutions from the RSS

Filed Under: Diversity Tagged With: data quality, Gender Pay Gap, Median, Quartiles, Royal Statistical Society, Significance

UK Weather Tracker #30 – July 2019

August 6, 2019 By Nigel Marriott

The UK set a new record for maximum temperature of 38.7 degrees in Cambridge on 29th July.  Other than that, the UK weather was unremarkable for the month overall, other than being warmer than normal.  This goes to show that whilst individual days can be remarkable, it is rare that this is sustained.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #30 – July 2019

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

Pay Gaps #10 – Should the UK introduce Ethnicity Pay Gap Reporting?

July 18, 2019 By Nigel Marriott

After two years of mandatory gender pay gap reporting, there is increasing pressure to bring in pay gap reporting for other protected characteristics.  At the moment, ethnicity is receiving the greatest attention and a number of politicians are calling for the introduction of mandatory ethnicity pay gap reporting.

In this post, I will explain why I am opposed to an ethnicity pay gap reporting process which simply replicates the gender pay gap reporting process.  In a future post, I will explore what an ethnicity pay gap reporting process should look like if parliament decides it wants to make this law.

[Read more…] about Pay Gaps #10 – Should the UK introduce Ethnicity Pay Gap Reporting?

Filed Under: Diversity Tagged With: data quality, Ethnicity Pay Gap, Gender Pay Gap, Statistician

Ethnicity #1 – Is all white alright?

July 18, 2019 By Nigel Marriott

You have just started work for a new employer and with you joining, the company now has 25 employees.  All are white including you.  Would you raise your eyebrows at that?

[Read more…] about Ethnicity #1 – Is all white alright?

Filed Under: Diversity Tagged With: Bayes rule, Binomial Distribution, Discrimination, Ethnicity, Probability, Workplace diversity

Stats in the News #3 – Did I change Bath’s Clean Air Zone plans?

July 15, 2019 By Nigel Marriott

The city of Bath is among a number of cities in the UK tasked with reducing Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) emissions.  NOx pollution is thought to contribute to poor health and the government has required clean air plans from the relevant local authorities to be in place before 2021.  I had no idea that this would result in my statistical expertise being needed to answer a political row over the BathBreathes2021 plans to charge cars driving into Bath and you can read my report to see what my answer was!

[Read more…] about Stats in the News #3 – Did I change Bath’s Clean Air Zone plans?

Filed Under: Forecasting, Misc Tagged With: BathBreathe2021, Evidence, Expert Witness, Forecasting model, Pollution, Spatial Statistics

Pay Gaps #9 – How to close your gender pay gap with DMAIC

July 5, 2019 By Nigel Marriott

So you’ve measured your gender pay gap (correctly I hope!) but you don’t know what to do next?

You are not alone, many employers are still getting their heads around how to interpret their pay gaps and are struggling to work out what it means for them.  One outcome is that many consultants are out there waiting to advise you and among them are statisticians like me.  But what exactly is it that statisticians bring to the party compared to other consultants?  One answer is that statisticians use DMAIC to help organisations improve the quality of their products, services and processes.

[Read more…] about Pay Gaps #9 – How to close your gender pay gap with DMAIC

Filed Under: Diversity Tagged With: DMAIC, Gender Pay Gap, QIS, Quality Improvement, Royal Statistical Society, Six Sigma, Statistician

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