An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future
It’s the quarter finals tomorrow and it’s time for me to predict the outcomes using World Rugby’s rankings. Although I got 33 out of 37 matches right in the pool stages, the 4 errors are enough to change my prediction of who will win.
[Read more…] about Rugby World Cup #2 – Who will win in 2019? – Knockout Round
The weather in the UK for September 2019 was unremarkable in all respects.
Augustin Pichot, vice-president of World Rugby, may not like its ranking system but ahead of the 2019 Rugby World Cup (Men’s), I have been able to use rankings to correctly predict 80% of international matches since 2017. For the world cup that starts this week, I used a dynamic ranking model to predict all matches and it shows that 4 countries cannot be separated for the trophy so we are in for some very exciting matches!
[Read more…] about Rugby World Cup #1 – Who will win in 2019? – Pool Stage
The 2019 summer was the 7th wettest on record but was also unusually warm given the amount of rain that fell. I have made a prediction that summer 2020 will not be a good one!
The UK experienced a warm and wet August this year. Rain intensity was the 4th highest on record which was similar to what was experienced in June & July thus making the 2019 summer the 2nd most stormy summer on record after 2007.
Q2 was a mixed picture for the UK economy. Quarterly GDP fell for the first time since whilst Economic Inactivity fell to record lows and Wage Inflation was the highest since the 2008 recession.
The Royal Statistical Society (RSS) and I have published two articles to help employers better calculate and interpret their gender pay gaps. The first article lists 10 recommendations to improve the quality of gender pay gap reporting, the second is an article in Significance magazine which explores in more detail, two of the recommendations concerning medians and quartiles.
[Read more…] about Pay Gaps #11 – A median sized problem with 10 solutions from the RSS
The UK set a new record for maximum temperature of 38.7 degrees in Cambridge on 29th July. Other than that, the UK weather was unremarkable for the month overall, other than being warmer than normal. This goes to show that whilst individual days can be remarkable, it is rare that this is sustained.
After two years of mandatory gender pay gap reporting, there is increasing pressure to bring in pay gap reporting for other protected characteristics. At the moment, ethnicity is receiving the greatest attention and a number of politicians are calling for the introduction of mandatory ethnicity pay gap reporting.
In this post, I will explain why I am opposed to an ethnicity pay gap reporting process which simply replicates the gender pay gap reporting process. In a future post, I will explore what an ethnicity pay gap reporting process should look like if parliament decides it wants to make this law.
[Read more…] about Pay Gaps #10 – Should the UK introduce Ethnicity Pay Gap Reporting?
You have just started work for a new employer and with you joining, the company now has 25 employees. All are white including you. Would you raise your eyebrows at that?
