At 2200 on Thursday 12th December 2019, the BBC/ITV/Sky Exit Poll was revealed to the nation and pointed to a large majority for the Conservatives. Unlike 2017, I was able to turn to my wife and say “it looks like I will be right this time!” By the end of the night, Gavin Freeguard from the Institute of Government was tweeting that not only was I the most accurate election forecaster of 2019, I was more accurate than the Exit Poll.
UK General Election 2019 #1 – My Official Forecast
My forecast for the 2019 UK General Election this Thursday is that the Conservatives will win a majority of 72 seats. The margin of error in this forecast is very wide though due to the fact that 5 of of the last 7 general elections have seen a major polling error. If there is a repeat of the GE2017 underestimate of Labour, then there will be another hung Parliament.
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UK General Election 2019 Voting Intention – Final Polls
Today, the UK votes in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years. After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt. As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives recovered their 2017 standing but Labour are still behind their 2017 performance.
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UK Weather Trends #11 – Autumn 2019
The UK experienced unremarkable weather in all respects in Autumn 2019.
UK Opinion Poll Tracker #16 – December 2019
Next Thursday, the UK will vote in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years. After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt. As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives have more or less recovered their 2017 standing but Labour are still behind their 2017 performance.
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UK Weather Tracker #34 – November 2019
The weather in the UK for November 2019 was completely unremarkable in all respects. It would be nice to have something unusual to report for a change!
UK Opinion Poll Tracker #15 – November 2019
In two weeks time, the UK will vote in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years. After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt. As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives have more or less recovered their 2017 standing but Labour is still a long way from repeating their 2017 performance.
[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #15 – November 2019
UK Economy Tracker #6 – 2019 Q3
The mixed picture for the UK economy continued in Q3. GDP growth is now at its lowest level since the 2008/9 recession but unemployment and inflation continues to be good. The low level of growth though continues to be a drag on government finances.
Pay Gaps #12 – Unequal Pay & Gender Pay Gaps are not the same thing!
The 14th November 2019 is being incorrectly marked as Equal Pay Day in the UK by the Fawcett Society. By having a campaign name that conflates equal pay issues with the gender pay gap, the Fawcett Society runs the risk of misleading men and women in the UK in their understanding of what these two concepts mean.
If you care about statistics being used correctly then please lobby the Fawcett Society to rename this as Gender Pay Gap day instead.
If you care about issues to do with Equal Pay, then please support the #MeTooPay campaign instead. This is a new campaign, led by Dame Moya Greene, who are explicit about the distinction and are saying, quite rightly, that with the 50th anniversary of the Equal Pay Act taking place next year, cases of unequal pay should not be happening in this day and age.
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UK Weather Tracker #33 – October 2019
The weather in the UK for October 2019 was completely unremarkable in all respects. It would be nice to have something unusual to report for a change!
