The mixed picture for the UK economy continued in Q3. GDP growth is now at its lowest level since the 2008/9 recession but unemployment and inflation continues to be good. The low level of growth though continues to be a drag on government finances.
Pay Gap Case Study #3- Will the BBC’s gender pay gap narrow after losing to Samira Ahmed?
The BBC presenter Samira Ahmed has won her claim for equal pay at the employment tribunal. She successfully claimed that Jeremy Vine was an appropriate comparator for her pay. She is not the only female presenter to make a claim with over 50 more claims under consideration at present. Assuming that these are all successful, will these have any effect on the BBC’s gender pay gap for 2019 of 7p in the pound?
Pay Gaps #13 – How could Ethnicity Pay Gap Reporting be introduced in the UK?
On 5th February 2020, Baroness Prosser laid a bill in the House of Lords which calls for the introduction of ethnicity pay gap reporting in addition to a number of other initiatives. Last year I explained why ethnicity pay gap reporting cannot follow the same process as gender pay gap reporting so now is the time to explore how ethnicity pay gap reporting could be carried out.
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UK Weather Tracker #36 – January 2020
January 2020 was the 6th warmest January on record. The met office has recently released data for the late 19th century so the record now goes back further than before.
UK Weather Tracker #35 – December 2019
The weather in the UK for December 2019 was completely unremarkable in all respects, yet again. Let’s hope 2020 is more interesting!
UK General Elections #5 – How accurate are voting intention polls? – updated with GE19
After 3 general elections with severe polling errors, the UK opinion pollsters redeemed themselves in the 2019 UK General Election with their most accurate performance since 1955. I base this statement on data provided by Mark Pack who has systematically recorded every opinion poll published since 1945. The challenge now for the industry is to maintain this level of performance for the next election which may be easier said than done given that 5 out of the last 8 elections have experienced a major polling error.
UK General Election 2019 #2 – My forecast is the most accurate & beats the Exit Poll!
At 2200 on Thursday 12th December 2019, the BBC/ITV/Sky Exit Poll was revealed to the nation and pointed to a large majority for the Conservatives. Unlike 2017, I was able to turn to my wife and say “it looks like I will be right this time!” By the end of the night, Gavin Freeguard from the Institute of Government was tweeting that not only was I the most accurate election forecaster of 2019, I was more accurate than the Exit Poll.
UK General Election 2019 #1 – My Official Forecast
My forecast for the 2019 UK General Election this Thursday is that the Conservatives will win a majority of 72 seats. The margin of error in this forecast is very wide though due to the fact that 5 of of the last 7 general elections have seen a major polling error. If there is a repeat of the GE2017 underestimate of Labour, then there will be another hung Parliament.
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UK General Election 2019 Voting Intention – Final Polls
Today, the UK votes in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years. After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt. As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives recovered their 2017 standing but Labour are still behind their 2017 performance.
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UK Weather Trends #11 – Autumn 2019
The UK experienced unremarkable weather in all respects in Autumn 2019.
