January 2020 was the 6th warmest January on record. The met office has recently released data for the late 19th century so the record now goes back further than before.
UK Weather Tracker #35 – December 2019
The weather in the UK for December 2019 was completely unremarkable in all respects, yet again. Let’s hope 2020 is more interesting!
UK General Elections #5 – How accurate are voting intention polls? – updated with GE19
After 3 general elections with severe polling errors, the UK opinion pollsters redeemed themselves in the 2019 UK General Election with their most accurate performance since 1955. I base this statement on data provided by Mark Pack who has systematically recorded every opinion poll published since 1945. The challenge now for the industry is to maintain this level of performance for the next election which may be easier said than done given that 5 out of the last 8 elections have experienced a major polling error.
UK General Election 2019 #2 – My forecast is the most accurate & beats the Exit Poll!
At 2200 on Thursday 12th December 2019, the BBC/ITV/Sky Exit Poll was revealed to the nation and pointed to a large majority for the Conservatives. Unlike 2017, I was able to turn to my wife and say “it looks like I will be right this time!” By the end of the night, Gavin Freeguard from the Institute of Government was tweeting that not only was I the most accurate election forecaster of 2019, I was more accurate than the Exit Poll.
UK General Election 2019 #1 – My Official Forecast
My forecast for the 2019 UK General Election this Thursday is that the Conservatives will win a majority of 72 seats. The margin of error in this forecast is very wide though due to the fact that 5 of of the last 7 general elections have seen a major polling error. If there is a repeat of the GE2017 underestimate of Labour, then there will be another hung Parliament.
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2019 #1 – My Official Forecast
UK General Election 2019 Voting Intention – Final Polls
Today, the UK votes in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years. After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt. As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives recovered their 2017 standing but Labour are still behind their 2017 performance.
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2019 Voting Intention – Final Polls
UK Weather Trends #11 – Autumn 2019
The UK experienced unremarkable weather in all respects in Autumn 2019.
UK Opinion Poll Tracker #16 – December 2019
Next Thursday, the UK will vote in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years. After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt. As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives have more or less recovered their 2017 standing but Labour are still behind their 2017 performance.
[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #16 – December 2019
UK Weather Tracker #34 – November 2019
The weather in the UK for November 2019 was completely unremarkable in all respects. It would be nice to have something unusual to report for a change!
UK Opinion Poll Tracker #15 – November 2019
In two weeks time, the UK will vote in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years. After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt. As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives have more or less recovered their 2017 standing but Labour is still a long way from repeating their 2017 performance.
[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #15 – November 2019
