Theresa May has just asked the EU Council for a 3 month extension to Article 50, the Speaker won’t allow another meaningful vote without meaningful changes, Jeremy Corbyn is pondering backing another referendum and in 9 days time, the UK could be leaving the EU without a deal. Just another week in the Parliamentary Brexit Maze but I have updated my Brexit Voting Factions after last week’s votes and identified an 8th faction for you to play with in your voting permutations.
[Read more…] about EU Referendum #6 – Find your way out of the Brexit maze in 9 Days!
EU Referendum #5 – Find your way out of the Brexit maze in 16 Days!
*** This post is not yet complete. However you will find a link to the data near the bottom and a link to a twitter thread for some of the images ***
Within the next 10 days, the House of Commons will get a second Meaningful Vote on the Withdrawal Agreement which could be followed by 2 more significant votes on No-Deal and Article 50 Extension. I have been tracking how MPs have voted on the first Meaningful Vote and subsequent Amendments which I summarised in two posts “Find your way out of the Brexit Maze in 57 days and 43 days.” Following further amendments at the end of February and with no more amendments planned before the next meaningful vote, I have redone my cluster analysis to predict what the outcome of these votes might be. As far as possible, I am trying to base my predictions on what MPs have done rather than what they say but I will compare my analysis with that of Election Maps who have been tracking MP’s statements.
[Read more…] about EU Referendum #5 – Find your way out of the Brexit maze in 16 Days!
UK Weather Trends #8 – Winter 2019
The winter of 2019 was consistent with the step change in the winter climate that took place in the 1990s.
UK Weather Tracker #25 – February 2019
February 2019 ended with the warmest days on record in the month. As a result, the month as a whole was the second warmest and second sunniest February on record.
UK Opinion Poll Tracker #14 – February 2019
After 12 months of essentially static polls despite the news being dominated by Brexit, Labour has experienced a significant worsening of their position and the Conservatives have opened up a lead over Labour that would give them a majority in parliament. Words of caution are being uttered about the extent of the Tory lead since one pollster is notably out of step with all other pollsters.
[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #14 – February 2019
Stats Training Materials – Forecasting & Risk Modelling
All organisations want to understand what has happened in the past and what will happen in the future. The use of statistics and statistical thinking is essential to be a better forecaster but that doesn’t mean it is easy to do! At the same time, we are bombarded with forecasts in the media and that can make it difficult to decide which forecasts to pay attention to and which can be ignored.
My course “Identifying Trends & Making Forecasts” is all about doing the basics right when it comes to analysing trends and making predictions. To support this course, this post makes available a variety of material in the public domain covering the following themes:-
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UK Economy Tracker #3 – 2018 Q4
It’s taken 10 years but the UK is finally experiencing true wage growth that outpaces inflation. With employment and economic activity at record levels, the UK economy should be in good shape but the basic problem of low growth is still there. Our economy still needs to place itself on a stronger footing ahead of a rising probability of another recession in the near future.
EU Referendum #4 – Find your way out of the Brexit maze in 43 Days!
Rather than celebrating love on Valentine’s day, Parliament chose to use the occasion to emphasise their discord over the EU withdrawal process, 43 days before the UK is due to leave the EU. Three amendments were voted on and this allows me to update my Brexit voting blocks which I first described in “Find your way out of the Brexit maze in 57 days!”.
This post was updated on 22nd February 2019 to take into account the resignations of 9 MPs from the Labour party. and 3 MPs from the Conservative party.
[Read more…] about EU Referendum #4 – Find your way out of the Brexit maze in 43 Days!
UK Weather Tracker #24 – January 2019
2019 in the UK began with a dry month but normal weather otherwise.
Stats Training Materials – Basic Statistical Concepts
A sound grasp of basic statistical concepts is essential to have any hope of acquiring the mindset of a statistical thinker and to be able to use statistical methods. My introductory course “The 6 Concepts of Statistical Thinking” lays the foundations in the following.
- Probability – the difference between conditional & absolute probability.
- Risk – why it is an extension of probability and the importance of alpha (false positive) and beta (false negative) risk.
- Expectation – how to summarise a dataset into one number which measures its location.
- Variance – how to measure the spread of a dataset.
- Distribution – how to describe the shape of a dataset.
- Correlation – how to measure the relationship between two variables and understand the two golden rules of correlation.
[Read more…] about Stats Training Materials – Basic Statistical Concepts
