An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future
A good forecaster should always provide an easily accessible list of forecasts made, how the forecast was arrived at and how accurate it ended up being. At long last, here is my election forecasting track record updated with the 2024 UK General Election so finally I am a good forecaster I hope!
[Read more…] about Forecasting #3 – How Accurate are My Election Forecasts?
Labour have retained the West of England Combined Authority (WECA) Mayoralty As I predicted, the contest was won with less than a quarter of the vote and with a small majority (less than 3%). Unfortunately, I had the Greens winning the mayoralty so on the face of it, this is a forecasting error for me. However, when voters are as fragmented as they are today, measuring forecasting skill is not as straightforward as it might seem.
April 2025 was the sunniest April on record in the UK. It beat the previous record set in 2021 which in turn beat the record set in 2020 during COVID19 lockdown. There may be a theme but equally I’m not going to bet on all April’s being sunny. Given March was also the 3rd sunniest on record, there’s a good chance this Spring will beat the extraordinarily sunny Spring of 2020.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #99 – April 2025
The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with less than a quarter of all votes cast. My analysis shows it is a 5-way marginal, the likes of which have never been seen before in England. All five parties have reasons to be optimistic but as of now, I and most other forecasters make the Greens favourites to win the 2025 WECA mayoralty. With an election this tight, the parties get-out-the-vote efforts will play a big part in the final outcome.
All forecasts, charts & tables are based on the latest polls as of 26th April 2025.
[Read more…] about UK Local Elections #2B – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Final Forecast
The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with less than a quarter of all votes cast. My analysis shows it is a 5-way marginal, the likes of which have never been seen in England before. Why no-one has polled WECA is a mystery because this is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable elections I’ve ever seen.
My forecast puts the Greens first with 24% but it also puts Reform, Lib Dems & Labour just behind with each on 20% and the Conservative and Independent candidates bringing up the rear. I am using a weighted average of four models of which 2 have Labour winning, 1 has the Greens winning and the 4th model (with the highest weight) has Reform winning. That’s how unpredictable the election is and why we need a WECA specific opinion poll!
This article is based on polls as of 7th April 2025. My updated forecast based on polls as of 26th April can be found here.
[Read more…] about UK Local Elections #2A – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Initial Forecast
Finally we have more interesting weather in the UK in 2025! March was warmer, drier and sunnier than usual but it was still cool at night which meant frost levels were normal. Altogether, the month was fractionally below my definition of an unusual month.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #98 – March 2025
Mention P-values and most people will probably shudder at some memory of an incomprehensible lecture or lesson on statistical tests. Words like null hypotheses, t-tests, statistical significance might pop into your mind with little understanding of what they are about. What you may know is that scientists have to report a p-value for any experiment they do or do they?
The area of Statistical Inference is a core area of study for any statistician. Put simply, Inference means to infer from the observations you’ve made about your data and to draw conclusions about what might be happening in real life. There are two parts to Inference.
[Read more…] about Stats Training Materials – Statistical Inference & Hypothesis Testing
Winter 2025 in the UK was unremarkable. Last year I explained I believe our winters are following a steady trend to warmer and wetter winters which began in the early 1980s. The data for the winter just gone doesn’t my conclusions.
The weather in the UK in February was thoroughly unremarkable.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #97 – February 2025
All organisations want to understand what happened in the past and what will happen in the future. The use of statistics and statistical thinking is essential to be a better forecaster but that doesn’t mean it is easy! At the same time, we are bombarded with forecasts in the media which can make it difficult to decide which forecasts to pay attention to and which can be ignored.
My course “Identifying Trends & Making Forecasts” is all about doing the basics right when it comes to analysing trends and making predictions. To support this course, here are links to material in the public domain covering the following themes:-
[Read more…] about Stats Training Materials – Forecasting & Risk Modelling
