June 2025 was the 2nd warmest June on record in the UK, just behind the record set 2 years ago. Otherwise, the weather in the UK was unremarkable.
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Pay Gaps #32 – My Response to the Ethnicity & Disability Pay Gap Reporting Consultation
The government’s consultation on whether ethnicity and disability pay gap reporting should be made mandatory for large employers has now closed. I submitted a response in my capacity as a professional statistician with 7 years experience of helping employers to get to grips with pay gap reporting. My response was in two parts, a briefing note of the 9 statistical challenges that have to be confronted for a workable reporting system to be introduced and my answers to the 33 questions posed by the government in their consultation.
** The government published its response to the consultation on 25th March 2026 (link in next section) **
*** This post was updated on 9th June 2025 with links to my final response. Links to my draft response can be found at the end of this post. ***
UK Weather Trends #36 – Spring 2025
Spring 2025 in the UK was both the hottest & sunniest on record as well as the 5th driest. For sunshine, 2025 was even more extraordinary than the exceptionally sunny spring in 2020 and was the result of 3 very sunny months in a row. For temperature, there was no doubt in my mind this time the data was correct unlike last year when I questioned whether spring 2024 was in fact the warmest in record. The Met Office has not corrected the record so apparently it was.
UK Weather Tracker #100 – May 2025
The 2nd sunniest May on record in the UK follows the sunniest ever April & the 3rd sunniest March and resulted in the sunniest spring on record. I am not surprised that in many regions it was also the warmest spring on record.
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Forecasting #3 – How Accurate are My Election Forecasts?
A good forecaster should always provide an easily accessible list of forecasts made, how the forecast was arrived at and how accurate it ended up being. At long last, here is my election forecasting track record updated with the 2024 UK General Election so finally I am a good forecaster I hope!
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UK Local Elections #2C – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – Review of My Forecast
Labour have retained the West of England Combined Authority (WECA) Mayoralty As I predicted, the contest was won with less than a quarter of the vote and with a small majority (less than 3%). Unfortunately, I had the Greens winning the mayoralty so on the face of it, this is a forecasting error for me. However, when voters are as fragmented as they are today, measuring forecasting skill is not as straightforward as it might seem.
UK Weather Tracker #99 – April 2025
April 2025 was the sunniest April on record in the UK. It beat the previous record set in 2021 which in turn beat the record set in 2020 during COVID19 lockdown. There may be a theme but equally I’m not going to bet on all April’s being sunny. Given March was also the 3rd sunniest on record, there’s a good chance this Spring will beat the extraordinarily sunny Spring of 2020.
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UK Local Elections #2B – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Final Forecast
The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with less than a quarter of all votes cast. My analysis shows it is a 5-way marginal, the likes of which have never been seen before in England. All five parties have reasons to be optimistic but as of now, I and most other forecasters make the Greens favourites to win the 2025 WECA mayoralty. With an election this tight, the parties get-out-the-vote efforts will play a big part in the final outcome.
All forecasts, charts & tables are based on the latest polls as of 26th April 2025.
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UK Local Elections #2A – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Initial Forecast
The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with less than a quarter of all votes cast. My analysis shows it is a 5-way marginal, the likes of which have never been seen in England before. Why no-one has polled WECA is a mystery because this is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable elections I’ve ever seen.
My forecast puts the Greens first with 24% but it also puts Reform, Lib Dems & Labour just behind with each on 20% and the Conservative and Independent candidates bringing up the rear. I am using a weighted average of four models of which 2 have Labour winning, 1 has the Greens winning and the 4th model (with the highest weight) has Reform winning. That’s how unpredictable the election is and why we need a WECA specific opinion poll!
This article is based on polls as of 7th April 2025. My updated forecast based on polls as of 26th April can be found here.
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UK Weather Tracker #98 – March 2025
Finally we have more interesting weather in the UK in 2025! March was warmer, drier and sunnier than usual but it was still cool at night which meant frost levels were normal. Altogether, the month was fractionally below my definition of an unusual month.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #98 – March 2025
