It was the 8th warmest August on record in the UK. When combined with the 5th warmest July and the 2nd warmest June, the result was the warmest summer on record. Otherwise, the weather on average in the UK continues to be unremarkable in terms of rainfall and sunshine but that disguises some significant regional variations.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #103 – August 2025
UK Weather Tracker #102 – July 2025
It was the 5th warmest July on record in the UK making it also the 5th month in a row where temperatures have exceeded the historical upper decile. The weather in the UK continues to be unremarkable in terms of rainfall and sunshine but we are on track for the warmest summer and year on record.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #102 – July 2025
UK General Elections #9 – The 40-55 Channel
Voting intentions in Britain were remarkably stable for the first half of 2025. The last time the polls were this stable was 10 years ago in the run up to the 2015 General Election.
What’s that I hear you say? Have I not noticed the surge in Reform’s vote share from 20% to 30%? I have but I’m focusing on the 40-55 Channel which has been the defining feature of voting intentions for nearly all of the last 15 years. Everything I see in 2025 tells me the 40-55 Channel will continue to define British politics all the way through to the next election by 2029. Perhaps I better explain what I’m talking about.
[Read more…] about UK General Elections #9 – The 40-55 Channel
UK Weather Tracker #101 – June 2025
June 2025 was the 2nd warmest June on record in the UK, just behind the record set 2 years ago. Otherwise, the weather in the UK was unremarkable.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #101 – June 2025
Pay Gaps #32 – My Response to the Ethnicity & Disability Pay Gap Reporting Consultation
The government’s consultation on whether ethnicity and disability pay gap reporting should be made mandatory for large employers has now closed. I submitted a response in my capacity as a professional statistician with 7 years experience of helping employers to get to grips with pay gap reporting. My response was in two parts, a briefing note of the 9 statistical challenges that have to be confronted for a workable reporting system to be introduced and my answers to the 33 questions posed by the government in their consultation.
** The government published its response to the consultation on 25th March 2026 (link in next section) **
*** This post was updated on 9th June 2025 with links to my final response. Links to my draft response can be found at the end of this post. ***
UK Weather Trends #36 – Spring 2025
Spring 2025 in the UK was both the hottest & sunniest on record as well as the 5th driest. For sunshine, 2025 was even more extraordinary than the exceptionally sunny spring in 2020 and was the result of 3 very sunny months in a row. For temperature, there was no doubt in my mind this time the data was correct unlike last year when I questioned whether spring 2024 was in fact the warmest in record. The Met Office has not corrected the record so apparently it was.
UK Weather Tracker #100 – May 2025
The 2nd sunniest May on record in the UK follows the sunniest ever April & the 3rd sunniest March and resulted in the sunniest spring on record. I am not surprised that in many regions it was also the warmest spring on record.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #100 – May 2025
Forecasting #3 – How Accurate are My Election Forecasts?
A good forecaster should always provide an easily accessible list of forecasts made, how the forecast was arrived at and how accurate it ended up being. At long last, here is my election forecasting track record updated with the 2024 UK General Election so finally I am a good forecaster I hope!
[Read more…] about Forecasting #3 – How Accurate are My Election Forecasts?
UK Local Elections #2C – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – Review of My Forecast
Labour have retained the West of England Combined Authority (WECA) Mayoralty As I predicted, the contest was won with less than a quarter of the vote and with a small majority (less than 3%). Unfortunately, I had the Greens winning the mayoralty so on the face of it, this is a forecasting error for me. However, when voters are as fragmented as they are today, measuring forecasting skill is not as straightforward as it might seem.
UK Weather Tracker #99 – April 2025
April 2025 was the sunniest April on record in the UK. It beat the previous record set in 2021 which in turn beat the record set in 2020 during COVID19 lockdown. There may be a theme but equally I’m not going to bet on all April’s being sunny. Given March was also the 3rd sunniest on record, there’s a good chance this Spring will beat the extraordinarily sunny Spring of 2020.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #99 – April 2025
