An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future
A good forecaster should always provide an easily accessible list of forecasts made, how the forecast was arrived at and how accurate it ended up being. At long last, here is my election forecasting track record updated with the 2024 UK General Election so finally I am a good forecaster I hope!
[Read more…] about Forecasting #3 – How Accurate are My Election Forecasts?
Labour have retained the West of England Combined Authority (WECA) Mayoralty As I predicted, the contest was won with less than a quarter of the vote and with a small majority (less than 3%). Unfortunately, I had the Greens winning the mayoralty so on the face of it, this is a forecasting error for me. However, when voters are as fragmented as they are today, measuring forecasting skill is not as straightforward as it might seem.
The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with less than a quarter of all votes cast. My analysis shows it is a 5-way marginal, the likes of which have never been seen before in England. All five parties have reasons to be optimistic but as of now, I and most other forecasters make the Greens favourites to win the 2025 WECA mayoralty. With an election this tight, the parties get-out-the-vote efforts will play a big part in the final outcome.
All forecasts, charts & tables are based on the latest polls as of 26th April 2025.
[Read more…] about UK Local Elections #2B – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Final Forecast
The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with less than a quarter of all votes cast. My analysis shows it is a 5-way marginal, the likes of which have never been seen in England before. Why no-one has polled WECA is a mystery because this is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable elections I’ve ever seen.
My forecast puts the Greens first with 24% but it also puts Reform, Lib Dems & Labour just behind with each on 20% and the Conservative and Independent candidates bringing up the rear. I am using a weighted average of four models of which 2 have Labour winning, 1 has the Greens winning and the 4th model (with the highest weight) has Reform winning. That’s how unpredictable the election is and why we need a WECA specific opinion poll!
This article is based on polls as of 7th April 2025. My updated forecast based on polls as of 26th April can be found here.
[Read more…] about UK Local Elections #2A – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Initial Forecast
After their 2nd best ever performance in the 2019 UK General Election, the UK polling industry flipped in the 2024 UK General Election to their 2nd worst ever performance after 1992. 6 of the last 9 elections have seen at least one party experience a major polling error. It would appear the move to web polling and lower barriers of entry has led to poorer quality polls.
My third and final forecast of the number of seats to be won by each party in the 2024 UK General Election is –
The numbers in brackets are the changes from my second forecast of 30th June 2024.
This article is based on polling data as of 2000 on 3rd July 2024. If more polling data comes in and causes me to change my forescript, the changes will be detailed in a postscript at the end of the article.
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2024 #5 – My Final Forecast as of 3rd July 2024
My second forecast of the number of seats to be won by each party in the 2024 UK General Election is –
The numbers in brackets are the changes from my first forecast of 23rd June 2024.
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2024 #4 – My Forecast as of 30th June 2024
My first forecast of the number of seats to be won by each party in the 2024 UK General Election is –
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2024 #3 – My Forecast as of 23rd June 2024
My UK General Election 2024 forecasting model will be a top down version which I last used in 2010. Top down approaches first predict how many seats each party will win in total before seeking to identify which seats each party wins. This differs from the bottom-up approach I used in 2017 & 2019 where I forecast the outcome for each seat first and then aggregated the forecasts.
Here I explain how my 2024 forecast will be made but it finishes with a warning that I may have to dump my 2024 model in favour of the forecasting approach I used for the 2015 general election.
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2024 #2 – My Forecasting Model
Labour is on course for a crushing landslide later this year… or are they? Many parallels with 1997 are being drawn at the moment but it’s too early to be making detailed forecasts. Instead, I want to lay the foundations for my election forecast
later this year by looking at what 100 years of UK electoral history is telling me. I tell this story by assigning probabilities to 10 specific outcomes of interest and finish by explaining why 2024 is more likely to be a repeat of 2001 than 1997.
I remind you I was deemed the most accurate forecaster of the 2019 general election. This article is the first in what I hope will be a series of articles which lead me to hold on to that accolade!
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2024 #1 – Going beyond the swing
