An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future
In a week’s time, Americans will go to the polls for what is known as the mid-term elections. Inevitably, the results will lead to much speculation on what it means for Donald Trump’s chances of re-election in 2020. However, I will be surprised if many commentators will look to history as a guide to 2020 and so I will fill in this gap with the help of fun 10 question quiz about US presidents.
[Read more…] about US Presidential Election 2020 #1 – Will Donald Trump win a 2nd term in 2020?
I thought August was unremarkable but September was even more boring!
As I write this, a plethora of economic forecasts are making the rounds in the news in the UK. In all cases, the forecasters have failed to publish their track record and these days, I will not pay attention to what they say unless their forecasts are accompanied by a track record. But, how does one go about presenting a forecasting track record to prove that one has forecasting skill? To demonstrate, I will analyse how well opinion polls have predicted General Elections in the UK and measure their track record. I must confess I was surprised at what I found out and I would urge all opinion pollsters to take note of my results.
[Read more…] about Forecasting#2 – Do Election Pollsters Show Forecasting Skill?
Meteorologists define summer in the UK to be the period from June to August so summer is now over and we are officially in autumn. The 2018 summer was the joint hottest on record and in doing so blew apart my prediction that we would have to wait till next year for our next good summer!
The headline of the second quarter of 2018 is the lowest unemployment rate since 1975. Economic Inactivity continues to be at record lows, inflation is falling and the budget deficit is shrinking. However, GDP growth continues to be sluggish which means our pay is stagnating and we have record levels of debt to pay off. History tells us that the odds of another recession soon will rise from now on so there is still a need to change the state of our economy.
After 3 months of hot, dry and sunny weather, the UK returned to normal in August with a completely unremarkable month.
The UK is on course for its best summer since 2006 following a hot, dry and bright July.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #18 – July 2018
Which is the odd one out from the 3 figures shown below? All are the average number of Americans to die each year from these causes.
Do think about your answer before you read on!
I hope you enjoyed the least rainy June on record! It was also the third warmest and fifth sunniest June on record.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #17 – June 2018
This is intended to be a briefing note for anyone interested in seeing gender pay gap data being used properly. Gender pay gap data is now part is the business and political discourse in the UK and is likely to be so for some time. If the goal of gender pay gap reporting is to remove disparities in pay between men and women, then it is essential that the public has confidence in both the quality of the data being published and the correctness of any interpretations of the results. With the first round of data reporting out of the way, it is time to learn lessons, identify improvements and see that these are implemented. Following extensive analysis of the 2017 round of results, I have identified 12 ways to improve the quality of the data being reported and make interpretations of the results more meaningful.
[Read more…] about Pay Gaps #3 – 12 ways to improve public confidence in gender pay gap data
