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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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UK Opinion Poll Tracker #13 – December 2018

January 5, 2019 By Nigel Marriott

The Conservatives have lost their lead over Labour but despite the parliamentary turmoil over Brexit in December, the polls do not show much movement in the grand scheme of things.

[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #13 – December 2018

Filed Under: Polling Tagged With: Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls

UK Weather Tracker #23 – December 2018

January 5, 2019 By Nigel Marriott

The start of the new meteorological year was warm with normal rainfall.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #23 – December 2018

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

Stats Training Materials – Multivariate Analysis

December 31, 2018 By Nigel Marriott

If I were to remark to you that “the weather is very nice today” or “I didn’t like that person”, it is unlikely that I would have made such statements based on a single variable.  It is more likely that a combination of variables were evaluated to arrive at these statements.  When we analysis datasets with multiple variables, we are undertaking Multivariate Statistical Analysis.

Multivariate Analysis comes in two flavours :-

  1. Analysis of Correlations between Multiple Variables – Known as R-Analysis – Informally known as reducing the dimensionality of your dataset.
  2. Analysis of Distance between Many Objects – Known as Q-Analysis – Informally known as mapping, clustering or segmentation of your dataset.

[Read more…] about Stats Training Materials – Multivariate Analysis

Filed Under: Stats Training Tagged With: multivariate data, principal components analysis, Segmentation, standardisation, Statistical Training, Teaching Materials, z-scores

UK Weather Trends #7 – Autumn 2018

December 6, 2018 By Nigel Marriott

Meteorologists define autumn in the UK to be the period from September to November so autumn is now over and we are officially in winter.  The 2018 autumn was consistent with the step change in the autumnal climate that took place in the 1990s.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #7 – Autumn 2018

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Tracker #22 – November 2018

December 5, 2018 By Nigel Marriott

There is no subtle way to say this, our weather in November was boring!

[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #22 – November 2018

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

UK Economy Tracker #2 – 2018 Q3

November 26, 2018 By Nigel Marriott

The headline of the third quarter of 2018 is that the UK continues to be sluggish but going in the right direction.  There is no question, the economy needs a pickup soon to place itself on a stronger footing ahead of a rising probability of another recession in the near future.

[Read more…] about UK Economy Tracker #2 – 2018 Q3

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Economy Tracker, Presenting data, Trackers, UK Economy

UK Opinion Poll Tracker #12 – October 2018

November 4, 2018 By Nigel Marriott

Here is a long overdue update of my UK opinion poll tracker and in this post, I going to take a closer look at the key trends over the last 12 months.

[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #12 – October 2018

Filed Under: Polling Tagged With: General Election 2017, Opinion Poll Tracker, Opinion Polls

UK Weather Tracker #21 – October 2018

November 4, 2018 By Nigel Marriott

A sunny October resulted in wide temperature ranges leading to cold nights and the first frosts of the autumn.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #21 – October 2018

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

US Presidential Election 2020 #1 – Will Donald Trump win a 2nd term in 2020?

October 30, 2018 By Nigel Marriott

In a week’s time, Americans will go to the polls for what is known as the mid-term elections.  Inevitably, the results will lead to much speculation on what it means for Donald Trump’s chances of re-election in 2020.  However, I will be surprised if many commentators will look to history as a guide to 2020 and so I will fill in this gap with the help of fun 10 question quiz about US presidents.

[Read more…] about US Presidential Election 2020 #1 – Will Donald Trump win a 2nd term in 2020?

Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting Tagged With: Election forecasting, elections, Forecasting model, US E, US Elections, US Presidents, USA

UK Weather Tracker #20 – September 2018

October 3, 2018 By Nigel Marriott

I thought August was unremarkable but September was even more boring!

[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #20 – September 2018

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

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