My latest UK weather tracker shows that August was just like July in being an unremarkable month. This means the meteorological summer of 2017 has also been unremarkable just as I have been predicting for the last few years.
UK Weather Tracker #6 – July 2017
My latest UK weather tracker shows that July has been an unremarkable month and it would appear that the summer in 2017 will also be unremarkable. Believe it or not, I have predicting this for the last few years and I will explain why in a separate post in September.
UK Weather Tracker #5 – June 2017
My latest UK weather tracker shows that the meteorological summer started with a hot but stormy June.
UK Weather Tracker #4 – May 2017
I apologise for the lateness of this post. The general election took up a lot of my time and energy but from now on I have no excuse not to keep this up to date.
My latest UK weather tracker shows that it was the 2nd warmest May since 1910.
UK Weather Trends #1 – Spring 2017
Meteorologists define spring in the UK to be the period from March to May so spring is now over and we are officially in summer. I have decided to create a series of posts which I will publish at the end of each season showing how that season compares to the weather record. The 2017 spring turned out to be the 2nd warmest on record.
UK Opinion Poll Tracker #5 – 28th May 2017
There are only 9 days of campaigning left before the voters go to the polls on 8th June. Between now and then, we can expect around 8 to 10 polls per week to be published and I will keep you up to date with what they are saying. I will use my analysis of these polls to update my 2017 General Election Seat Predictions and you should read that post in conjunction with this one.
The latest situation is that the Conservatives now only hold a 9% lead over Labour which is down 4% from last week. Labour’s vote share has recovered significantly to narrow the Conservatives lead and Labour are now polling above the level that they were just before the 2015 general election. The Lib Dems are back to where they were in 2015 whilst the Greens & UKIP continue to fade away.
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UK General Election 2017 Forecast #2 – Latest Prediction as of 21st May 2017
Here you can find my latest forecast of the 2017 UK General Election on 8th June. My forecast uses data from my latest UK Opinion Poll Tracker and it is worth reading that post in conjunction with this post.
My latest prediction using uniform regional swing adjusted for parties standing down is that the Conservatives will make a net gain of 52 seats resulting in a working majority of 119 seats. If anti-Conservative tactical voting takes place then this has the potential to reduce the Conservatives working majority to 73 seats which I am sure Theresa May would still be very happy with! [Read more…] about UK General Election 2017 Forecast #2 – Latest Prediction as of 21st May 2017
UK General Election 2017 Seat Forecast #6 – Edinburgh South, Scotland
For my first Scottish seat forecast, I head up to Labour’s last seat in Scotland. I have just become aware of a constituency poll in Edinburgh that took place at the beginning of April before the election was called but the data has only just been released by Survation.
At first sight the poll is bad news for the Conservatives and good news for Labour but I will show that in fact the reverse is the case and that the poll is further evidence that a Brexit Realignment may be taking place. If so, the Conservatives majority in Parliament will be larger than current predictions are showing.
My Prediction – LAB Hold
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UK General Election 2017 Seat Forecast #5 – North Norfolk, East England
This is my first seat forecast from the Eastern region and I have chosen the seat of North Norfolk for two reasons. First it is one of only 8 seats held by the Lib Dems in 2015 and one of 3 Lib Dem-Leave seats. Second, it is one of 23 seats in Britain this election that will be fought between only 3 candidates from the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Both UKIP and the Greens have decided not to stand in this seat and this will be a good seat to examine my model for handling the votes of parties that stand down.
My Prediction – CON GAIN but extremely marginal
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2017 Seat Forecast #5 – North Norfolk, East England
UK General Election 2017 Seat Forecast #4 – Bishop Auckland, North East
This forecast was updated on 17th May 2017. The predicted outcome is unchanged from my previous forecast.
For my 4th seat forecast of the 2017 general election, I am heading to the North East which is where I grew up. A colleague who lives in the Bishop Auckland seat told me that “Labour could put a monkey up as a candidate and it would get elected”. Since the seat was created in 1885, no Tory has ever won this seat and it has been Labour since 1935.
My Prediction – CON Gain
[Read more…] about UK General Election 2017 Seat Forecast #4 – Bishop Auckland, North East
