An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future
Labour continues to hold a small lead over the Conservatives as the nation entered the Christmas holidays. There is evidence of some voter movement towards UKIP which indicates that their true national level is around 4% or 5% and their General Election performance was distorted by so many of their candidates standing down.
[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #9 – December 2017
My latest UK weather tracker shows that December 2017 was the only month of 2017 to set a new UK weather record with the lowest rain intensity recorded in December. [Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #11 – December 2017
Meteoologists define autumn in the UK to be the period from September to November so autumn is now over and we are officially in winter. The 2017 autumn was completely unremarkable but this hides the fact that our autumnal climate has changed quite notably over the last 25 years.
My latest UK weather tracker shows that the November 2017 was the 9th brightest on record which is some comfort for those that curse the onset of dark evenings with the change of clocks.
Labour’s 2 point lead over the Conservatives disappeared during November and they now hold a very slight lead. There is evidence of some voter movement towards UKIP which indicates that their true national level is around 4% or 5% and their General Election performance was distorted by so many of their candidates standing down.
[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #8 – November 2017
The third round of the Autumn Internationals take place this weekend and for nearly all nations that will be the end of the action. For the last two weeks, I used World Rugby’s Rankings to predict who will win and to set expectations for each nation for the whole series and my predictions have worked out well with 11 out of the 12 matches involving 6 Nations teams correctly called. This performance is consistent with a similar set of predictions I made for the 2017 6 Nations where I correctly called 12 out of 15 games.
[Read more…] about Autumn Internationals #3 – Who will win in 2017? – Week 3
The second round of the Autumn Internationals take place tomorrow and some tasty matches await us. Last week, I used World Rugby’s Rankings to predict who will win and to set expectations for each nation for the whole series and my predictions got off to a good start with 5 out of the 6 matches correctly called. This performance is consistent with a similar set of predictions I made for the 2017 6 Nations where I correctly called 12 out of 15 games.
[Read more…] about Autumn Internationals #2 – Who will win in 2017? – Week 2
It’s November again and for rugby fans, it means the Autumn Internationals are on us again. The nations of Europe welcome teams from all over the world for the next 3 or 4 weeks to test each other and find out where they stand. Ahead of the first round of matches, I have used World Rugby’s Rankings to predict who will win and to set expectations for each nation.
Earlier this year, I made a similar set of predictions for the 2017 6 Nations and correctly called 12 out of 15 games. The prediction model is explained in one of my 6 Nations post but World Rugby’s goal is that rankings can be used as a predictive tool. The idea is to take each team’s current ranking and add 3 points to teams playing at home. Whoever has the higher ranking is then expected to win but clearly the closer the rankings, the closer the game is expected to be. [Read more…] about Autumn Internationals #1 – Who will win in 2017? – Week 1
This is my first opinion poll tracker post since the General Election on 8th June 2017. Nearly 5 months have passed and only now can we say that politics is starting to move on from the election. I thought it was worth updating this post to see what current voting intentions are but this will not be an in depth post compared to earlier posts.
Since the election, Labour has been leading the Conservatives in the polls by 2% or so. This is mostly due to defections by some Conservative voters other than that, voter movements have been minor.
[Read more…] about UK Opinion Poll Tracker #7 – October 2017
My latest UK weather tracker shows that October was a warm and cloudy month with normal levels of rainfall.
