The UK is on course for its best summer since 2006 following a hot, dry and bright July.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #18 – July 2018
The Fat Tail of Kim Kardashian
Which is the odd one out from the 3 figures shown below? All are the average number of Americans to die each year from these causes.
- A – 69 from Lawnmowers
- B – 31 from Lightning
- C – 9 from Islamic Terrorists
Do think about your answer before you read on!
UK Weather Tracker #17 – June 2018
I hope you enjoyed the least rainy June on record! It was also the third warmest and fifth sunniest June on record.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #17 – June 2018
Pay Gaps #3 – 12 ways to improve public confidence in gender pay gap data
This is intended to be a briefing note for anyone interested in seeing gender pay gap data being used properly. Gender pay gap data is now part is the business and political discourse in the UK and is likely to be so for some time. If the goal of gender pay gap reporting is to remove disparities in pay between men and women, then it is essential that the public has confidence in both the quality of the data being published and the correctness of any interpretations of the results. With the first round of data reporting out of the way, it is time to learn lessons, identify improvements and see that these are implemented. Following extensive analysis of the 2017 round of results, I have identified 12 ways to improve the quality of the data being reported and make interpretations of the results more meaningful.
[Read more…] about Pay Gaps #3 – 12 ways to improve public confidence in gender pay gap data
UK Weather Trends #5 – Spring 2018
Meteoologists define spring in the UK to be the period from March to May so spring is now over and we are officially in summer. The 2018 spring was very sunny but this hides the fact that our spring climate has changed quite notably over the last 25 years.
UK Weather Tracker #16 – May 2018
I hope you enjoyed the sunniest May on record! It was also the second warmest May on record though the Met Office chose to sow confusion by claiming it was the warmest on record.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #16 – May 2018
UK Economy Tracker #0 – My New Tracker Explained!
Welcome to my first tracker post of the UK economy! I intend this to be similar in format to my UK Weather Tracker except that it will be published quarterly rather than monthly. In this post I will explain the statistics I have chosen to track.
I am a big believer in placing recent statistics in their historical context. Nothing annoys me more than someone overexplaining a small dip in GDP which in historical terms is absolutely meaningless. Unfortunately we live in a world cursed by the year on year comparison without any understanding of basic time series concepts such as autocorrelation and reversion to the mean. So one hope I have with my Economy Tracker is to improve this state of affairs.
[Read more…] about UK Economy Tracker #0 – My New Tracker Explained!
Pay Gap Case Study #1 – Life on Mars
The UK is facing the challenge of interpreting the first round of gender pay gap data. I listed some of the challenges in my article “the 7 ways to misuse gender pay gap data“ where in statement 4, I concluded a lack of understanding of the laws of chance will result in unjustified allegations of gender discrimination against some organisations. In this article, I want to demonstrate the laws of chance using nothing more than some dice and coins, a process known as simulation. My simulation model is simple enough for you to repeat by yourselves and at the end, you will have a better idea of the extent to which median gender pay gaps can vary even when organisations do not discriminate in any shape or form.
*** This article was edited on 25th January 2025 to bring it in line with my current style guide. There is no material change to the content.
[Read more…] about Pay Gap Case Study #1 – Life on Mars
Pay Gaps #2 – 1 in 10 organisations have published incorrect gender pay gap data. Are you one of them?
The first round of gender pay gap data is now available for all organisations employing more than 250 employees. The UK now faces the challenge of interpreting this data and using it properly which will not be easy given “the 7 ways to misuse gender pay gap data” I recently wrote about. In the short term, there is an immediate need to resolve errors in the data published and I will demonstrate that potentially 10-15% of organisations have entered incorrect data into the government’s database. [Read more…] about Pay Gaps #2 – 1 in 10 organisations have published incorrect gender pay gap data. Are you one of them?
Pay Gaps #1 – 7 ways to misuse gender pay gap data
April 2018 was the deadline for submitting gender pay gap results and we now have the first detailed picture of how pay differs between men and women in the UK. A nifty government website can be used to look up pay gap details for any company employing more than 250 employees and you can also download the results for further analysis. So what will happen next? Will the data be used properly to inform debate about how men and women are paid or will it be misused for personal and political gain?
I believe this data can be of benefit to the debate around gender equality but my fear is that to begin with, it will be misused, misinterpreted and reinforce the saying “lies, damned lies and statistics”. So if you want to misuse gender pay gap data, who better to ask that a professional statistician like me who will show you how you can do this by commenting on 7 plausible statements.
[Read more…] about Pay Gaps #1 – 7 ways to misuse gender pay gap data
