Whilst the UK shivered under two major snow storms in March, it turns out that the whole month was unremarkable meteorologically albeit somewhat colder than normal. [Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #14 – March 2018
UK Opinion Poll Tracker #11 – March 2018
For my latest Opinion Poll Tracker, I will explore 4 points currently being debated by political pundits.
- Have the Conservatives taken the lead in the polls?
- How much weight should we give to Survation polls who were the most accurate in 2017 and are the outlier poll today?
- Was there a “Youthquake” in the 2017 general election?
- What would the effect be of allowing 16 & 17 year olds to vote in general elections?
UK General Elections #3 – Who is the most accurate pollster?
The last 3 general elections have seen some significant polling errors. In 2010, the Lib Dems were significantly overestimated, in 2015 the Conservatives were underestimated and last year saw the largest ever underestimate in the Labour vote. Whilst these errors suggest that the polling industry is struggling with general elections these days, a natural question to ask is “are all pollsters equally bad or are some better than others?”
[Read more…] about UK General Elections #3 – Who is the most accurate pollster?
6 Nations #12 – Who will win in 2018? – Week 5
We now know the answer to who will win the 2018 6 Nations Championship. Ireland won the title with a match to spare after England failure against France resulted in my second forecasting error of the championship. There is still much to play for though in the last week with the main question being whether England do to Ireland what Ireland did to England last year and stop them from winning a Grand Slam. Whilst I am cheering on England, it is St. Patricks Day and I do have some Irish blood in me so part of me does wish Ireland well.
[Read more…] about 6 Nations #12 – Who will win in 2018? – Week 5
UK Weather Trends #4 – Winter 2018
Meteoologists define winter in the UK to be the period from December to February so winter is now over and we are officially in spring. The 2018 winter was very sunny but this hides the fact that our winter climate has changed quite notably over the last 25 years.
EPL 2017/18 #3 – My Prediction of the Final League Table – Round 30
My first published attempt to predict the outcomes of Premier League matches got off to a good start last week with 23% of my predictions getting the right scoreline and 52% getting the right outcome. I have updated my prediction of the final league which continues to point to an incredibly tight relegation battle, especially for my team Newcastle United.
[Read more…] about EPL 2017/18 #3 – My Prediction of the Final League Table – Round 30
6 Nations #11 – Who will win in 2018? – Week 4
Be careful of what you wish for! Two weeks ago, I said I was hoping for an error in my predictions based on World Rugby’s rankings and I finally got one and it was Scotland overturning my team England …
[Read more…] about 6 Nations #11 – Who will win in 2018? – Week 4
UK Weather Tracker #13 – February 2018
Last month, I expressed my cynicism at the media crying wolf over bad weather in the UK. The wolf finally appeared but in the first week of March instead so that means that February still did not see the wolf as I explain in this month’s UK Weather Tracker. [Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #13 – February 2018
EPL 2017/18 #2 – My Prediction of the Final League Table – Round 29
With 10 games to go, the 2018 EPL is now entering its final quarter and supporters of all teams are starting to wonder where their team will finish in the league. As a Newcastle United supporter, my team is stuck right in the middle of one of the tightest relegation battles in living memory. At the other end of the table, my wife’s team Spurs are almost certainly out of the running for the title but Champions League qualification is definitely in their sights. To set expectations, I have used a statistical method known as Poisson modelling to predict the final league table come May 13th and I will update this post after every round of games between now and then so please bookmark this page.
[Read more…] about EPL 2017/18 #2 – My Prediction of the Final League Table – Round 29
6 Nations #10 – Who will win in 2018? – Week 3
After two weeks of the 2018 6 Nations, all 6 of my match predictions have been correct. Whilst this might be vindication of the World Rugby ranking model, the last thing we want in sport is a perfect prediction model otherwise what’s the point? Where would be the excitement of watching sport live? So I am hoping for an incorrect prediction soon …
[Read more…] about 6 Nations #10 – Who will win in 2018? – Week 3
