Search Results for: covid19

COVID19 Deaths #2C – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 15th May

May 16, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths. However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England. In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 19th May.

COVID19 Deaths #2B – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 8th May

May 11, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

COVID19 Deaths #2A – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 1st May

May 3, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths. However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England. In this post, I explore how the PHE series can be used to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England every Tuesday.

Coronavirus #3 – How many people have died of COVID19 in the UK?

April 24, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

The Financial Times (FT) has estimated the true number of COVID19 related deaths in the UK as of 20th April 2020 is 42,000 not 17,000 as published by the Department of Health & Social Care (DHSC). In this article, I show that the FT headline is incorrect and is the result of either the FT comparing apples with pears due to a misunderstanding over what the various data sets measure or the FT attempting to estimate a number that can never be verified.

Trophy Winners #2 – England Women’s Club Football 1992 to 2025

May 31, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

The 2024/25 Women’s Super League (WSL) ended with Chelsea winning their 2nd ever Domestic Treble after their 1st in 2021 and Arsenal winning the Champions League for the 2nd time ever after their 1st in 2007.

If you are new to the women’s game in England (especially following the Lionesses winning the European Championship in 2022), why not download my spreadsheet listing all trophy winners since 1992 to find out which teams are the GOATs of English women’s football?

UK Weather Tracker #99 – April 2025

May 5, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

April 2025 was the sunniest April on record in the UK. It beat the previous record set in 2021 which in turn beat the record set in 2020 during COVID19 lockdown. There may be a theme but equally I’m not going to bet on all April’s being sunny. Given March was also the 3rd sunniest on record, there’s a good chance this Spring will beat the extraordinarily sunny Spring of 2020.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #99 – April 2025

Stats Training Materials – Forecasting & Risk Modelling

March 1, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

All organisations want to understand what happened in the past and what will happen in the future. The use of statistics and statistical thinking is essential to be a better forecaster but that doesn’t mean it is easy! At the same time, we are bombarded with forecasts in the media which can make it difficult to decide which forecasts to pay attention to and which can be ignored.

My course “Identifying Trends & Making Forecasts” is all about doing the basics right when it comes to analysing trends and making predictions. To support this course, here are links to material in the public domain covering the following themes:-

Stats Training Materials – Sampling & Surveys

January 17, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

The core expertise that Statisticians offer to the world is drawing conclusions from small samples. Therefore, knowing how to design surveys, estimate the right sample size, decide on the right way to ask the question or measure a property are all essential skills for any statistical thinker. The skills you need to be competent in Sampling & Surveys are best captured by my Survey Wheel.

Pay Gap Trends #8A – Is a Smaller Pay Gap Good News?

January 3, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

The gender pay gap in the UK continues to narrow in 2024. The good news is the pay gap is narrowing at a faster rate since 2017 when Gender Pay Gap Reporting (GPGR) for employers become mandatory. The bad news is women are not progressing up the pay scale and are working longer hours, men today are worse off than their fathers were 20 years ago and the smaller pay gap is simply the by-product of wage compression induced by above inflation rises in the minimum wage. This is a sobering picture which tells me on balance, a smaller pay gap is not good news.

This article is part A of a 2-part blog. Part B will be published at a later date.

Pay Gap Trends #7 – UK Ethnicity Pay Gap 2012 to 2022

January 3, 2024 By Nigel Marriott

In November 2023, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) resumed publishing estimates of the UK Ethnicity Pay Gap after a 3 year hiatus for the Covid19 pandemic. I have organised this data into a user-friendly (hopefully!) Microsoft Excel spreadsheet which allows you to see how the median hourly pay has changed between 2012 & 2022 for a variety of ethnicities & other categories. This article explains how you can use this spreadsheet and why you must look at ethnicity pay gap data in a different way than you would for gender pay gap data.